Sudden Ice Age – Poland/Ukraine: One sentence will leave scars

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stand side by side on a podium in Aachen, Germany. They smile, embrace each other brotherly and flatter each other with songs of praise.

The scene described took place four months ago, when Zelensky received the Charlemagne Prize – for his services to a united Europe. Polish solidarity with Ukraine seemed entrenched. Morawiecki brought up the big silverware in his laudatory speech: “Today Ukraine is the outermost outpost of a united Europe. Ukraine defends our freedom at the borders of Europe.”

When diplomacy becomes theatre
The strength of European civilization rests on cooperation: “The basis is solidarity, and the driving force and heart of Europe is the desire for freedom,” Morawiecki emphasized with a vehemence that seemed unwavering.

Fast forward a few months.

On Wednesday evening, news agencies broadcast the following statement from the Polish Prime Minister: His government no longer wants to supply weapons to its neighbors, but wants to equip itself with “the most modern weapons.” What is promised is delivered, then it’s over, a spokesperson said on Thursday.

A few hours before Morawiecki’s statement, Zelensky appeared at the UN General Assembly in New York. He accuses a number of EU countries – and by this he of course means Poland – of ‘political theater’ that only benefits the Kremlin. Warsaw is angry and calls the Ukrainian ambassador. And Polish President Andrzej Duda uttered a sentence that will likely resonate in Kiev for a long time.

“A drowning person is very dangerous because he can drag you down with him.” Do you want to suddenly drown the “outpost”? What happened here?

Grain, elections and embargoes
The answer is known: it’s about money and the voters’ favor. EU restrictions on Ukrainian grain exports by land have been lifted since last Friday. Due to the ongoing war, usual sea exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have come to a virtual standstill.

But Ukraine is still ignored on three national borders. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia hardly allow any grain into the country – thus indirectly playing into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin. By bombing Ukrainian ports, the Kremlin is trying to bleed grain exports – one of Ukraine’s most important financial lifelines. If important partners are also lost over land, the plan will actually work.

Poland and other countries fear that importing Ukrainian grain, which is significantly cheaper, will put their own agriculture at a huge competitive disadvantage. In Poland, parliamentary elections are scheduled for mid-October. Political scientists expect an exciting race between the right-wing camp around Prime Minister Morawiecki (PiS) and the liberal-conservative opposition around former government leader Donald Tusk (Civic Platform).

Germany sees ‘part-time solidarity’
Farmers are an important voter group for the right-wing nationalist PiS government. “We protect Polish farmers,” Morawiecki said recently. The blockade is now also causing anger in other partner countries. German Green Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir has already accused the governments in Warsaw, Budapest and Bratislava of ‘part-time solidarity’.

Will there really be a break with Ukraine? After all, Poland was the first country to supply fighter planes to its neighbor. The southeastern Polish city of Rzeszow is also a major hub for Western arms supplies to Ukraine.

Morawiecki tries to limit the damage here. “Our hub in Rzeszow, in consultation with the Americans and NATO, continues to fulfill the same role as before and will continue to do so,” he said on Wednesday.

What’s next?
Attempts are also being made elsewhere to clarify the “misunderstanding”. “Even top politicians are only human and face different pressures. Zelensky is under constant pressure and if we were in his position, we might go crazy more often than he does,” Czech President Petr Pavel said, according to CTK news agency.

“Any stronger statement does not necessarily have to be taken literally,” he added. However, it is unclear how the crisis will be resolved. All that can be heard from the Ukrainian government is that it has made a “constructive” proposal to resolve the dispute.

But it is also true that a few days ago Ukraine filed a lawsuit against the three EU countries at the World Trade Organization. De-escalation sounds different.