The experts of the Covid Prognosis Consortium expect a further, slight decrease in the number of infections in the coming week. Slight increases are also possible within the fluctuation range. The above-average temperatures may have been responsible for the noticeable drop in the number of infections over the past week, it reported on Wednesday.
The fortnightly forecast of hospital occupancy also shows a slight negative. Last Wednesday, the model calculator assumed that the number of Covid infections would most likely (on average) remain stable over the course of the week – with a seven-day incidence per 100,000 inhabitants of about 400 cases, possibly well into the summer. On Tuesday, the value was now around 320.
Stagnation in most federal states
“Currently, seasonal effects have a dampening effect on the incidence of infections,” emphasized the experts from Vienna University of Technology, MedUni Vienna and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (GÖG), looking back at the previous forecast. The case prognosis was only outside the 68 percent confidence interval in Vienna, Lower Austria and Burgenland. “While the predicted stagnation was in most states, there were especially significant declines in the eastern states,” it was noted.
“On the other hand, the decrease in immune protection obtained by vaccination or recovery has an infection-increasing effect. In the medium term, it can be assumed that the second effect will dominate,” the experts also warned of a possible increase in the number of infections.
The highest incidence is expected in Burgenland
For next Wednesday, a seven-day incidence of between 240 and 390 cases per 100,000 inhabitants is now expected, with an average of 300. The lowest incidence is expected in Styria (200 to 330) and the highest incidence in Burgenland (290 to 470).
The virus variants BA.4/BA.5 and BA.2.12. are now classified as variants of care by the EU disease control agency ECDC. According to international observation data, these mutations should have growth advantages over their predecessors. However, they have not yet been detected in Austria in sufficient numbers to be relevant to the current prognosis, the researchers explained.
Fewer patients in intensive care
From May 17 to June 1, a decrease from 682 to an average of 460 infected persons is expected in the normal wards. The experts estimate that the number of Covid intensive care patients should fall from 58 to 38 in the next two weeks. Due to the currently very low area numbers, usual weekday-related fluctuations can lead to high relative deviations, but this was emphasized.
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
