According to experts, the year 2023 will likely be the warmest year in the world since records began. The EU climate service Copernicus reported on Thursday that the values of the previous record year 2016 were likely to be exceeded. This is evident, for example, from the high average temperatures of the Earth’s surface and the surface temperature of the oceans.
A record high average temperature on the Earth’s surface has been measured for six months, says Dieter Gerten of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Right now we are very close to “average global warming of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.” According to the Paris Climate Agreement, crossing this limit must be avoided at all costs in the long term.
Here you see a tweet about the temperatures in September.
According to data from Copernicus, average temperatures so far in 2023 are 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels. In September it was even 1.75 degrees higher than in the reference period. According to preliminary data from the US Climate Reanalyzer platform, extremes in sea surface temperatures and the air temperature curve have also been seen since April. For example, the North Atlantic Ocean is warmer than ever (see video above).
The high temperatures, especially since March, are very unusual, they are surprisingly different from all previous years since measurements began, says climate modeler Helge Gößling from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven. At the same time, there are natural regional fluctuations. According to Gerten, the climate phenomenon El Niño can increase the already continuously rising temperatures.
No more cool years expected soon
In about ten years, a year like 2023 will probably no longer be considered particularly warm, but rather normal, Gößling suspects. “As long as we continue to burn large amounts of fossil fuels, higher and higher heat records will become the new normal.” According to experts, an average or even rather cool year, such as in the 20th century, can no longer be expected in the future. the near future.
Experts recently said at a conference in Hamburg that climate change will now proceed largely unchecked. “We must accept that the 1.5 degree limit will be exceeded. The Paris Framework Agreement has effectively failed on this point. This also means that only with enormous efforts will it be possible to keep warming below the limit of 2 degrees,” says Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.
Source: Krone
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