The Israeli government’s decision has long been made; the army leadership leaves no doubt about it. “With fighting spirit and determination, we will achieve what is necessary to provide security for our people in the coming years,” the commander of the 188th Armored Brigade, or Volozhinsky, said this weekend, referring to the “next phase of the battle.” war” in the Gaza Strip.
It is about the ground offensive in the densely populated coastal strip. It is a military operation with risks and dangers for the civilian population, but also for the thousands of Israeli soldiers who have gathered on the border with the Gaza Strip with its 2.2 million inhabitants.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had to find an answer to the October 7 massacre in Israeli towns near the Gaza Strip, which left more than 1,400 dead. After what hundreds of terrorists have done on behalf of the Islamist Hamas, Israel sees the complete dismantling of the group as the only possible answer.
Hamas’ infrastructure must be destroyed
But heavy air strikes will not be enough. Or as Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi (pictured below) said on Saturday: “We will enter the Gaza Strip for an operational, professional mission: destroying Hamas operatives and infrastructure.” Since the start of Israeli airstrikes, according to Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip, they have killed more than 4,650 people and injured thousands.
Given Hamas’s atrocities, Israeli commentators have no doubt that the soldiers will act decisively. “Never have I seen such a strong will to fight,” wrote the military correspondent for the Israel Hayom newspaper. “They (the soldiers) understand that there is simply no other choice.”
Extremely unequal power relations
The balance of power between the two warring parties is already very unequal. The Israeli army is considered one of the best in the world and is estimated to number more than 170,000 soldiers. It has also recently mobilized approximately 300,000 reservists. Even if the ground offensive were to begin, not all of them would invade the Gaza Strip, says military historian Danny Orbach of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
According to Israeli estimates, Hamas had approximately 30,000 fighters before the terrorist attack on Israel. More than 1,000 of their terrorists were killed during and after their massacres in Israel, and hundreds more were captured. Orbach estimates that there are actually only about 15,000 fighters. Other militant groups in the Gaza Strip also contribute several thousand fighters.
The army expects tunnels to be dug
Despite their numerical inferiority, the militant Palestinians have a major advantage: they know the terrain, Orbach emphasizes. “Hamas will plan ambushes and try to kidnap Israeli soldiers.” According to the historian, the offensive will involve fighting at several levels. “There is upper Gaza, where civilians live, and underground Gaza, where there are miles of militant tunnels.” The Israeli Defense Forces must therefore take into account undermined tunnels that could become death traps.
“But it is not just the individual weapons that are crucial,” says the military expert. Even in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the Russian troops, which according to Orbach were rather poorly equipped, managed to adapt their tactics to good and new weapons. The Israeli army, which is much better armed, will adapt to Hamas’ methods. Hamas is preparing for a lot, military chief Halevi said. “But we are also preparing for it.”
A bloody urban war is looming
Orbach fears that urban warfare in the densely populated part of the Gaza Strip will become bloody. “There will be a lot of collateral damage.” This military formulation means casualties among the civilian population. The Israeli army has therefore repeatedly called on the population in the northern Gaza Strip to leave the area in the south – but there are no supplies for the displaced people and there are also attacks there.
Even more houses in Gaza will be in ruins, as Orbach suspects – also to catch the Hamas members and kill them. According to Orbach, the ground offensive will be accompanied by air and artillery strikes.
Hundreds of kilometers of tunnels
The underground tunnels from which Hamas operates are estimated to be hundreds of kilometers long. Orbach does not believe that a large part of the so-called metro was destroyed in the clash between Israel and Hamas in May 2021, as the army claimed at the time. The group, which is classified as a terrorist organization by Israel, the US and the EU, has the ability to quickly rebuild underground passages, shelters and weapons depots.
To completely destroy the system, the army will, according to the expert, track down the tunnels using, among other things, aerial photographs and listening equipment that can locate voices in the corridors. The terrorists arrested in the massacres are also currently being interrogated for information about the tunnels. Because hostages from Israel may be kidnapped there, the military historian suspects that the army will not overrun them.
Israel: Most hostages still alive
Whether the army will otherwise take into account the people held in the Gaza Strip in its attacks depends on whether it knows anything about their exact whereabouts, Orbach said. The Israeli military says it currently believes most of the at least 212 people kidnapped in the coastal enclave are still alive. The expert is not optimistic about the future: “Hamas will probably kill many hostages if the army moves in and wants to free them.”
The military historian assumes that an initial phase of intensive fighting could last about six weeks, provided that the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah does not intervene more heavily in the war and opens a new front in the north.
The last major ground offensive lasted two months
Israel’s last major ground offensive in the Gaza Strip began on July 17, 2014 – ten days after the start of massive airstrikes. In total, the armed conflict lasted almost two months. But at the time, the goal was not the complete destruction of Hamas.
So far it is also unclear what plan Israel has for the period after the conclusion of a possible ground offensive for the Gaza Strip. Be that as it may, it will take some time before Hamas’ military capabilities and rule are eliminated, Orbach said. He then sees two options: “Either an international consortium or another Palestinian organization will take over the fate of the Gaza Strip.”
Source: Krone
I am Wallace Jones, an experienced journalist. I specialize in writing for the world section of Today Times Live. With over a decade of experience, I have developed an eye for detail when it comes to reporting on local and global stories. My passion lies in uncovering the truth through my investigative skills and creating thought-provoking content that resonates with readers worldwide.
