The European Commission has lowered its forecast for debt, budget deficit and unemployment in Spain.
The European Commission estimates that the Spanish economy will grow by 2.4% in 2023, an improvement of two tenths compared to the 2.2% in the summer forecast, although in 2024 real Spanish GDP growth is expected to slow . %, compared to the forecast of 1.9% in September.
Brussels attributes this slowdown in the coming year to the “poor” dynamics of external demand due to the lower momentum of the tourism sector and the “weakening” of the economic situation of Spain’s main trading partners, according to the autumn forecasts published this were published on Wednesday. .
The Community Council’s new macroeconomic forecasts, based on the budget extension sent by Spain’s caretaker government in October, expect the general government deficit to increase both this year (4.1%) and next year (3.2%). will exceed the 3% threshold. .
Forecasts also indicate that the unemployment rate in Spain will fall to 12.1% in 2023, and is expected to continue to improve to 11.6% and 11.1% in 2024 and 2025 respectively.
As for inflation, Brussels estimates that it will end this year with an average rate of 3.6%, which will moderate to 3.2% twelve months later (a tenth less than the previous calculation).
The document on the Commission’s economic services includes for the first time projections until 2025a year in which they think the economy will accelerate to 2%, inflation will fall to 2.1% and the deficit will rise slightly to 3.4%.
Spain is one of the countries growing the most
Spain thus leads the growth forecast in 2023 of the six largest economies in the EU, including it together with Germany (-0.3%), France (1%), Italy (0.7%), the Netherlands (0.6%). and Poland. (0.4%).
Similarly, growth is also above forecasts for both the Eurozone and the European Union as a whole, both forecasting 0.6% growth in 2023, implying a decline of two-tenths compared to September forecasts.
The Commission has revised downwards the growth of the EU economy for 2024, from the forecast of 1.4% in the summer to 1.3%, as well as that of the eurozone, which falls from 1.3% to 1.2 %.
As for inflation, in the eurozone it remains at the 5.6% already predicted in the summer forecasts, but increases from 2.9% to 3.2% for 2024.
Source: EITB
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