Dry cash flows – Zelenskyj – the cue ball: is Ukraine lost?

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Many American Republicans have turned away from Ukraine. Without their support, Joe Biden cannot provide new military aid to the war-torn state. The White House is now sounding the alarm – and Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being deployed for an emergency operation.

The White House no longer has money for Kiev. This is evident from a letter from the director of the US National Budget Office, Shalanda Young, to party leaders. If Congress fails to approve new aid soon, the United States will “bring its ally to its knees.”

By the end of the year, the US would no longer be able to procure weapons and equipment for Ukraine, nor supply equipment from its own military stockpiles.

“There is no magic pot”
Her rules leave no room for interpretation, the stakes are enormous: “There is no magic pot of financing to bridge this moment. We are running out of money – and running out of time.”

An overview of support payments to date:

US President Joe Biden had already requested a huge $106 billion package from Congress in October, which includes fresh money for Ukraine, Israel and projects in the Indo-Pacific region.

A recently adopted interim budget contains no new funds for the fight against Russia. A powerful group of Trumpists within the Republican Party is linking concessions to Kiev to a tightening of American asylum policy. A person familiar with the faltering negotiations told the Financial Times of a dramatic increase in demands.

The dream of a closed border
For example, Republicans dreamed of internment camps on American military bases and long-term detention of children. One of the Democratic negotiators in the talks, Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, told Politico on Monday that Republicans wanted to “essentially close the border.”

“It seems clear now that we’re going to have to make some pretty big compromises and concessions, and Republicans aren’t willing to meet us somewhere in the middle,” Murphy said.

Young’s letter shows that the Biden administration is deeply concerned about the future course of the war in Ukraine. A lack of U.S. aid could fuel a broader conflict and draw European states and the U.S. deeper into a military conflict with Russia.

At the same time, if Biden makes major asylum concessions, he risks angering progressive groups of voters who helped him win in the last duel with Donald Trump. There is already great anger about his handling of the Gaza war.

Zelenskyj – the supplicant
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – who is also coming under increasing pressure at home – wants to ask the US Senate for further support on Tuesday in view of the possible loss of crucial US military aid.

Zelenskyj wants to make clear the urgency of additional funds for his country and will be connected by video to a private meeting of senators, the House’s Democratic majority leader, Chuck Schumer, announced.

Schumer’s announcement in detail:

The Democrat asked everyone to attend this “important briefing.” The point is to hear directly from Zelensky what is at stake, as was explained on Monday evening (local time) in Washington.

Schumer urged his colleagues to “do the right thing” and move forward with releasing new funds. If Ukraine falls, Russian leader Vladimir Putin will continue, he warned. Autocrats around the world would be emboldened. Ultimately, it is about defending democracy.

For Zelensky, the situation could hardly be worse. If a new package is approved, it could be the last for a long time. Trump has already boasted that he could end the war over Ukraine within “24 hours” if he is elected next year.

The EU blockers
A 50 billion package for Ukraine is also stuck within the EU. Hungary – like Slovakia – is blocking the financial injection. According to diplomats, Viktor Orbán wants to use his blockade to force the release of 13 billion euros for Hungary, which the EU has frozen in the dispute over the rule of law in the country.

Slovakia, on the other hand, has made a remarkable course correction towards Ukraine. In the parliamentary elections at the beginning of October, left-wing populist Robert Fico was brought back for a fourth term in office.

The new old face at the top of the Slovak government secured the parliamentary majority through a highly controversial coalition with the ultra-right, pro-Russian Slovak National Party (SNS), immediately boycotted the media he hated, ended the military support to Ukraine and announced blocking further EU sanctions against Russia.

Zelenskyj escapes the situation
The situation is increasingly eluding the resourceful communicator Zelensky, who has always succeeded in convincing political decision-makers in the past. The future of his country now also depends on whether and for how long migrant children can be held in the US.

Before the super-election year of 2024, Ukraine will become a pawn in the domestic political trench warfare – and right now it’s the Republicans’ turn.

Source: Krone

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