The war in Ukraine is two years old, with Russia on the offensive

The war in Ukraine has been going on for two years of Russia on the offensive in almost all sectors of the front, while Ukraine is trying to compensate for the lack of weapons Westerner relieving the head of his army, Valeri Zaluzhnya maneuver with an uncertain outcome.

If the first anniversary of the war was positive for the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskythe second comes full of doubts for Kiev, which has decided to bet on the “strategic defense“in view of the enemy superiority in men and ammunition.

The long awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive June, which allowed the Ukrainians to advance mainly in the southern region of Zaporizhia, came to a standstill in the summer and paved the way for a new Russian offensive.

Without sparing men or equipment – ​​experts estimate the number of casualties at tens of thousands – the Russians succeeded advancing further into the Donbas during the winter campaign than in the previous 18 months of fighting.

First they captured the strategic city of Márinka, five kilometers southwest of Donetsk, the capital of the people’s republic of the same name, which was annexed by Moscow. It was their biggest success since capturing Bakhmut in May 2023.

After that, the Russians concentrated all their efforts capture the stronghold of Avdivkalocated in one of the most militarized areas of the more than a thousand kilometers of Russian-Ukrainian front.

Initially, Kiev chose to withstand the enemy attacks to the end, as previously in Mariupol and later in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, but in the end it had to surrender to the evidence. The city’s defenders were ordered to withdraw.

The Russian President, Vladimir Putinwho claimed victory in several events with a clear electoral character, it is not without reason that he needs successes on the battlefield to legitimize his re-election in the struggle March presidential elections.

Putin called for taking advantage of the current initiative to advance to other Ukrainian strongholds, clearly referring to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as well as Vugledar, all in the Donetsk region.

It wasn’t all bad news for Ukraine. The army, but especially the military intelligence, has managed to inflict serious setbacks on the Russian rearguard, especially the navy.

Ukraine has achieved results with home-made naval and air missiles and drones destroy a third of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet since the start of the warwhich caused so much damage in the first months of hostilities.

This makes the main Ukrainian port, Odessa, appear safe, although the former Russian president… Dmitry Medvedevinsist that this is a Russian city that will sooner or later return to the fold.

Aid in the Ukrainian army

The second anniversary of the Russian invasion comes just after the replacement of the current head of the Ukrainian armywho was fired by the president after months of public disagreement.

Analysts warn that if there is no substantial increase in the supply of weapons westernthe Ukrainian army will have to limit itself to defending itself.

Zaluzhni’s dismissal was widely criticized by the opposition and caused discomfort in much of society.

The new head of the army, Oleksandr Sirskifaces him the difficult task of winning the trust of his compatriots at a time that is a priori not favorable for Ukraine, where unity around Zelensky is wavering due to the lack of good news from the front.

Uncertainty about US military aid

Ukraine is entering the third year of the war with uncertainty over whether the country will continue to receive aid US military aidwhere Republican members of Congress are blocking the package 60 billion dollars The White House has proposed continuing support for Kiev throughout 2024.

The approval of this item is essential so that Ukraine can continue to defend itself with guarantees against Russian attacks, both on the battlefield and in the rear.

For this you need long-range missiles and air defense systemsin addition to the expected F-16 fighter jets, which should arrive mid-year.

Kiev is also waiting to receive almost half of the million 155-caliber artillery shells that the European Union (EU) promised to deliver to Ukraine before March this year.

Of course, Brussels managed to avoid the crisis Hungarian blockade and approved the package 50 billion euros of aid for the next four years, to which the efforts of countries such as Germany and France have been added in recent months.