Portugal goes to the polls in elections in which the Socialists will not win an absolute majority again

The Portuguese will go to the polls this Sunday, March 10, in elections marked by the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution in April, but above all by the unexpected resignation of the Prime Minister, António Costa, following a corruption case pending made. wrongly attracted his attention and which meant the end of an absolute socialist majority that was difficult to reaffirm in these elections.

The polls have been fluctuating for days between the two main favorites, the Socialist Party (PS) candidate, Pedro Nuno Santosand the one on the right, Luis Montenegroof the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which presents itself under the umbrella of a coalition of three parties, baptized as the Democratic Alliance (AD), which also includes old acquaintances that have fallen into decline, such as the Social Democratic Center ( CDS).

The latest, conducted by Studies and Opinion Polls (Cesop) of the Catholic University, has put Montenegro at 34% of the vote, followed by Santos with 28%. The one who has remained constant all this time is the far-right Chega de Andre Venturawith whom the right has said it is not prepared to govern.

Now that the votes of the social democracy’s most progressive electorate have been secured, Santos is trying to lower the image that for years has placed him among the party’s most left-wing current and thus seduce both centrist voters and the thousands of undecided voters. that still exist.

On the other hand, the right has been stagnant in opposition for eight years and is orphaned of a charismatic leader after the fall from grace of former Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho. On this occasion, Montenegro placed itself at the head of a winning coalition in 1979 and 1980, which also included the aforementioned CDS and a ‘rara avis’ such as the Popular Monarchist Party (PPM).

Spurred by the results predicted in the latest opinion polls, Montenegro has also wanted to play the role of the moderates in this campaign, leaving the attacks on Santos to other party members and distancing itself from Chega, with whom none of the favorites wasted a lot of time. respond to their attacks.

After repeatedly denies that he will resort to the extreme right to form a government (Santos has assured that in the event of a technical tie he will facilitate his investiture if he keeps his word) the possibility of his alliance with the Liberals, who aim to become the fourth political force in to be the Assembly, ever greater ground.

The Portuguese will choose this Sunday 230 deputies who will occupy the Assembly of the Republic for the next four years. It is thus expected that none of the blocs will get enough votes to reach a majority of 116 seats, as long as the right does not break its word and make an agreement with Chega.

Neither Santos nor Montenegro seem willing to repeat the elections, so the Portuguese will most likely have to endure these four years with a divided parliament. Both have indicated that if they don’t win, they would open to negotiations on important measuressuch as budgets, on a case-by-case basis.