Russia’s long arm – How the Kremlin is trying to disrupt the EU elections

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Shortly before the European elections, concerns about Russian influence are increasing again: cyber attacks are taking place on institutions in EU countries, pro-Russian internet platforms are said to be spreading propaganda in the EU and there is even talk of paying money to European politicians. How great is the danger?

“The European Parliament elections in early June are an expected target for such influence attempts,” says Lea Frühwirth of the Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS) in Berlin on election influence.

Typical examples include discrediting parties and politicians or sowing distrust in the legitimacy of the electoral process. Campaigns can also influence voters indirectly. Anyone who wants to undermine confidence in democratic institutions can do so by providing inadequate protection to the population.

Influence is a permanent condition
According to the expert, Russia does not only interfere in elections. Such campaigns are more like background noise, says Frühwirth. On certain occasions or to further fuel polarizing debate, this increases again.

The best example of this is Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The East StratCom Task Force, part of the EU’s diplomatic service, reports that cases of disinformation against Ukraine account for more than 40 percent of all cases in its database.

According to the experts of the ‘East StratCom Task Force’, campaigns related to the war in Ukraine aim, among other things, to undermine European support for aid to the attacked country with financial, military and humanitarian aid.

Dangerous cyber attacks
But Russian influence goes beyond disinformation campaigns. The Kremlin has been repeatedly accused of masterminding cyber attacks. “There may be various goals behind it, for example unlocking data, weakening critical infrastructure or a communication effect,” researcher Frühwirth explains.

Interventions in critical infrastructure would disrupt concrete processes, but should also demonstrate to the affected country that the government is unable to protect its citizens.

In recent attacks on the German SPD and German companies in the logistics, armaments, aerospace and IT services sectors, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock clearly named Russia as the perpetrator. “Russian state hackers have attacked Germany in cyberspace,” the Green politician said in May. The federal government blames a Russian military intelligence unit – APT28.

“Threat actor” Russia
It is not just Germany that is in Russia’s crosshairs: according to the EU, other state institutions, agencies and facilities in member states, including Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia and Sweden, had previously been attacked by the same ‘threat actor’.

A particularly prominent example of possible Russian influence is the Voice of Europe platform – based in Prague. This is suspected of spreading pro-Russian propaganda in the EU and paying money to European politicians. The portal included interviews with AfD politician Petr Bystron and his party colleague Maximilian Krah.

The Czech newspaper “Denik N” reported in early April that money may have flowed into the Bystron case. The AfD member of the Bundestag has rejected this several times. Krah also denies having accepted money from the Voice of Europe environment.

An investigation is being launched against the AfD man
Following this and other reports, the Munich Public Prosecution Service initiated so-called preliminary investigations into the Bystron case to determine whether there were initial suspicions of criminal behavior in which MPs had been bribed. According to information from dpa, the investigations that have been launched concern the allegations related to Voice of Europe.

In the case of Voice of Europe, a broadcasting ban in the EU was decided in mid-May. In addition to the platform, three Russian media outlets were also blocked across the EU. The fact that the broadcasting ban is now the result of a planned fourteenth package of sanctions against Russia is probably also due to concerns about influence before the European elections.

Manipulation goes beyond Election Day
Researcher Frühwirth warns that attacks on the legitimacy of election results can also take place afterwards and cause lasting problems. “The end of the election campaign does not have to mean the end of election-related attempts to exert influence.”

Source: Krone

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