The European Union (EU) is threatened with significant population decline in the coming decades. By 2070, the population within current borders could fall by 4.2 percent to 432.2 million, even with net immigration of 1.2 million people per year.
Without net immigration – arrivals minus departures – the EU population would decline even more significantly: by more than 20 percent to 358.4 million in 2070. The German Federal Statistical Office published this forecast in Berlin on Monday. The basis are calculations by the EU statistical agency Eurostat. On January 1, 2023, 451.4 million people lived in the EU.
With higher annual immigration – here an increase of 33 percent is assumed compared to the current level of 1.2 million people – growth would be expected. In 2070 the population would reach 465.5 million, 3.1 percent more than last year.
“There are clear differences between EU countries,” the statisticians emphasized. While Iceland, Malta, Luxembourg, Sweden and Ireland can expect significant population growth, the number of inhabitants would decline, especially in the Eastern and Southern European Member States.
The population is aging
Demographic changes will mean that in the future there will be fewer and fewer people of working age in EU countries, compared to an increasing number of people of retirement age, the statistics agency points out. The old age quotient represents the ratio of the number of people of retirement age (65 years and older) to 100 people of working age (20 to 64 years). According to the basic variant, this elderly dependency ratio will increase from the current 36 to 59 in 2070. Of the EU Member States, Lithuania will probably score the highest at 73 years, and the lowest at 50 years in Sweden, where there are two people in the working age to any person who has reached retirement age.
Source: Krone
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