The ECB will start lowering interest rates today

He European Central Bank will today begin to undo the degree of restriction of its monetary policy with a first interest rate cut 25 basis pointsuntil you put them in 4.25%according to analysts consulted by Europa Press and EFE.

Although no one doubts this decision, we are still waiting for the press conference to be given Christine Lagardepresident of the ECB, to give some indication of the path that future decisions will take, with the expectation that there will be at least another rate cut this year and even room for a third.

In this sense, Lagarde pointed out a few months ago that after the first setback, they could not commit in advance to following a specific path in this area.

Tomasz Wieladekchief economist at T. Rowe Price, warns that recent inflation developments “raise doubts about future cuts”, although he is confident that the disinflation process in the second half “will enable the ECB to achieve a total of three times this year to economise. “, although he acknowledges that “risks are increasing that the ECB will make only two cuts.”

At your side, Rubén Segura-CayuelaBank of America’s chief economist for Europe points out that today’s 25 basis point cut should be the first of 200 basis points of easing between June 2024 and July 2025. Mauro Vallehead of the fixed income department at Generali AM, warns that the decision will depend on upcoming economic data, especially on inflation and the evolution of salaries.

If the expected fall in the money price is confirmed today, it would be the first interest rate cut in the eurozone since September 2019, when the ECB cut the rate on its deposit facility while leaving refinancing and lending rates unchanged. has not fallen since March 2016. Markets will also be alert to the ECB’s new macroeconomic projections, especially after May’s forward inflation figures surprised by slightly above expectations (2.6%).