The ECB will further ease its monetary policy after the summer recess

He European Central Bank has planned cut interest rates by 25 basis pointsin a meeting where it will premiere José Luis Escrivá as governor of the Bank of Spain. Experts consulted by Europa Press agree that the ECB will continue with the normalization of its monetary policy, which began in June, after halting it in July, but they differ on the number of cuts this year.

Bank of America It foresees that the issuing institution will choose to lower the deposit rate to 3.50%, but without changes to its future roadmap, that is, always quote by quote and depending on the data.

“We should have somewhat lower growth in the near term, somewhat higher inflation in 2024 and unchanged medium-term outlook. Any further (and unexpected) downward revision could officially open the door to a rate cut in October,” he added in a press release.

Nomura maintains very similar lines on the cut in light of “weaker growth and a slowdown in wages”, and expects it to keep adjusting rates until they hit 2.5% in September 2025. The next cut would come in December.

While everyone agrees on the 25 basis point drop and the revision of growth and inflation forecasts, others also agree Allianz Global Investors They assure that the next cut will be brought forward to October, due to the slowdown in the US labor market and the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

In Santalucía Asset ManagementLuis Merino explains that “the good evolution of inflation, together with the recent weakness in crude oil prices and the strength of the euro, should provide comfort to the ECB to continue easing its monetary policy.”

Finally, the market analyst at EburyItsaso Apezteguia is also betting on today’s easing, but doubts whether there will be a third drop, saying it would be a “too aggressive” easing that would ultimately take place in just two movements.