The United States reaches its big date with the polls showing Trump and Harris tied and with doubts over whether the former president would accept an eventual election defeat or plunge the country’s constitutional system into chaos once again.
The citizens of the United States will be called to the polls on Tuesday to determine the country’s political future for the next four years. The Vice President, Kamala Harrisseeks to prolong the Democratic Government in light of a Donald Trump who wants to make history by returning to the White House four years later, in a context where polls do not take the victory of either of the two candidates for granted.
Although the process itself has been going on for weeks (more than 75 million Americans have already voted in advance), next Tuesday will be the big day. When the polls close – in the Basque Country, most will do so between 1am and 6am from Tuesday to Wednesday – a stream of projections and results will appear from which we can learn more about the future tenant of the White House .
Technically, voters do not directly elect the president, but rather the members of the Electoral College, under a particular system that stipulates that the winning candidate in each state stakes all the representatives in that area; except for Maine and Nebraska, where the distribution is proportional.
How to follow election night
There is no major federal organization to monitor election night, so the trickle of projections from major media outlets will color the map blue or red depending on each state. The general average of the surveys gives a clear advantage for Harris in the popular votebut the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Hillary Clinton experienced eight years ago that it is not enough to get more votes than his rival, but to prevail in important areas, known as swing states.
These areas do not vote clearly Democratic or Republican and fluctuate depending on each election. The national average of RealClearPolitics polls shows Trump maintaining his lead in contested states Arizona, Snowfall, Pennsylvania, North Carolina And Georgiawhile Harris leads the way Wisconsin And Michigan.
Each candidate’s counter goes up throughout the night and as soon as one of them gets the 270 votersmore than half of the members of the Electoral College will be declared de facto Victor. The tradition then marks a succession of victory and defeat speeches, although Trump refused to publicly acknowledge the current president’s triumph four years ago. Joe Bidenand denounced without evidence that he had been the victim of a election fraudwhich then led to an attack on the Capitol orchestrated by his followers, for which the former president has been tried, although no sentence has yet been handed down.
The White House is not the only thing at stake, as the House of Representatives, currently controlled by Republicans, will be completely renewed, and in the Senate, with Democratic dominance, a third of the seats are at stake . Controlling the legislature or at least one of the two chambers is essential for a president to have room for political maneuvering, both symbolic and practical.
A turbulent campaign
The United States reaches November 5 after one of the most turbulent election campaigns in recent history. Initially, the Democratic ‘ticket’ was going to be shared by Biden and Harris, but the president’s poor performance in his televised debate against Trump – June 27 – and a series of mistakes revived the debate about his old age and forced him to resign side to step. His grade already seemed written off.
The “number two” took control with the president’s approval and without any primaries involved, an exception that the Democratic Party tried to resolve with a national conference aimed at promoting Harris and her new partner, Tim Walzgovernor of Minnesota.
The celebration of the convention alone allowed the vice president, who is aiming to be the first woman in the White House, to rise in the polls, but the wear and tear of four years in the administration and the lack of clear ideas or changes from opinion on certain issues has put pressure on his popularity. Their hope is to attract the undecided who don’t want another four years of Trump.
On the other side of Harris, Trump, who again entered the Republican primaries, is ready to win and without minimal counterweight within his party. While moderates initially tried to stop him eight years ago, by 2024 everyone seemed resigned to accepting what clearly seemed inevitable.
In fact, neither the attack on the Capitol in January 2021 nor the many judicial fronts he has opened appear to have taken their toll on Trump. In May he became the first president convicted in the United Statesfor falsifying data to buy the silence of a former porn actress, Stormy Danielsshortly before the 2016 elections.
Aims to emulate Grover Clevelandthe only president to have had two non-consecutive terms in office, and he does so without changing his populist strategy one bit, which has led him to find himself in a debate over a hoax about immigrants eating pets, or to become Senator JD Vance as vice president, also interrupted by several controversies.
Trump survived an assassination attempt during the campaign that left him injured: On July 14, an individual was shot at a rally in Pennsylvania before being killed by security forces.
In mid-September, the tycoon was the victim of another attempted attack on his own golf club in Florida, although the person arrested did not fire any shots.
And what after the elections?
Whatever happens this Tuesday, there will be no immediate replacement in the Oval Office. The political system of the United States is characterized by a mixture of laws and traditions, beginning with the holding of elections on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November and ending on January 20 of the following year before the main entrance to the Capitol with the formal inauguration of the next president.
Whoever delivers the triumphant speech will have to deal with an economy that is apparently booming, but which continues to worry citizens – 81% acknowledge that this is an aspect they will take into account when casting their vote, according to Pew Research Center. Immigration has also entered public concerns, with Trump openly talking about “invasion.”
On the social front, Harris has placed special emphasis on the fact that with Trump in the White House, women’s rights, such as abortion, will be at risk, warning of a trend of decline that already began with a Supreme Court ruling in June 2022. The reins of the country could also be crucial in changing the current conservative dominance in the Supreme Court, as the future president is expected to have room to appoint a justice.
Trump has also shown in the campaign that he is a president who guarantees peace and has even said that if he had stayed in office for four more years, Vladimir Putin Ukraine would not have dared to invade, otherwise the current escalation of violence in the Middle East would not exist. What both candidates agree on is making it clear that Israel is the most important ally in this region, despite the Biden administration’s criticism of the prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu.
In Europe, both within the EU and within NATO, the event is being closely watched in anticipation of what might happen. Harris symbolizes the continuity of Biden’s policies for the vast majority of governments, while Trump has already shown that he is willing to exert more political, economic or defense pressure on his theoretical European allies.
Source: EITB
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
