Covid-19 vaccines prevented 20 million deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2021

The first study to quantify the impact of covid-19 vaccines on a global scale estimates they were avoided 19.8 million of the 31.4 million potential deaths in the first year after vaccine introduction (December 2020-December 2021) based on estimates based on additional deaths from 185 countries and territories, as published by the authors in The Lancet Infectious Diseases

Of those nearly 20 million deaths, nearly 7.5 million correspond to countries covered by the initiative COVAX (alliance to try to ensure equal access to the vaccine, especially for low- and middle-income countries). However, failure to meet the COVAX target of vaccinating 20% ​​of the population in some countries has caused an estimated 156,900 additional deaths. Although this figure represents a small proportion of all deaths in the world, these preventable deaths were concentrated in 31 African countrieswhere 132,700 deaths could have been prevented if the target had been achieved.

The study estimates that they could saved another 599,300 lives if it was fulfilled objective of the World Health Organization (WHO) to vaccinate 40% of each country’s population with two or more doses by the end of 2021. This is the first to estimate the impact of vaccination against Covid-19 on a global scale and the first to assess the number of deaths avoided both directly and indirectly.

Lead author of the study Dr. Oliver Watson, of Imperial College London, said the results “show that millions of lives have likely been saved by making vaccines available to people around the world, regardless of their wealth. However, more could have been done. If the WHO’s targets had been met, we estimate that approximately 1 in 5 of the lives estimated to have been lost to COVID-19 in low-income countries could have been prevented.”

Despite the incredible speed with which vaccines are being rolled out around the world, more than 3.5 million deaths from Covid-19 have been recorded since the first vaccine was administered in December 2020.

Preventing more deaths in rich countries

More than three quarters (79%, 15.5 million/19.8 million) of the avoided deaths were due to direct protection against severe symptoms through vaccination, leading to lower death rates. It is estimated that the 4.3 million deaths avoided were due to indirect protection by reducing the transmission of the virus among the population and reducing the burden on health systems, improving access to health care for the most vulnerable people in need .

According to the study, the impact of the vaccine changed over time and in different parts of the world as the pandemic progressed. In the first half of 2021, the highest number of vaccine-avoided deaths was seen in low middle income countries, as a result of the great epidemic wave in India when the delta variant emerged. Subsequently, the largest impact was concentrated in the higher income countries in the second half of 2021, when travel restrictions and social mixing were eased in some areas, leading to increased transmission of the virus.

In general, the estimated number of avoided deaths per person was higher in high-income countries, due to the earlier and wider roll-out of vaccination campaigns in these areas (66 deaths prevented per 10,000 people in high-income countries). 2,711 avoided deaths per 10,000 people in low-income countries). The High and upper middle-income countries avoided the most deaths (12.2 million/19.8 million), pointing to inequalities in vaccine access around the world.