The Ukraine war has forced Viktor Orb .n to reconsider his election campaign in Hungary this week for a general election to avoid being associated with a Russian invasion without renouncing close ties with the Kremlin. Of the last decade.
“Our interest is not to be a pawnbroker sacrificed in someone else’s war. In this war we have nothing to gain or lose. We must stay in this war! No Hungarians should fall between the Ukrainian ankle and the hammer.” “Russian,” the Hungarian prime minister said. On March 15, thousands of people gathered in Budapest to celebrate a national holiday, in a long speech from which the war took many passages.The message was clear: neither with Ukraine nor with Russia, but for some reason never against Russia. Has allowed one of Putin’s biggest supporters in Europe to step out of an awkward position in a country where the majority of the population sympathizes with Ukrainians.
“The most likely scenario is still that the government has verified an absolute majority. The electoral system is helping Fidesz,” Andrew Tours, an analyst at consulting firm Teneo Intelligence, told todaytimeslive.com. On the other side of the border, after the first moment of disorientation at the start of the war, Orb პარn’s party recovered in polls, which give two to five per cent more than for “United Hungary”, the poster with which the opposition is. It represents an unprecedented six-party coalition that combines virtually the entire ideological spectrum – the Socialist Party, the Left Democratic Coalition and the Párbeszéd (Dialogue), the Liberal Momentum Party, the environmentalist LMP and the ultra-nationalist Jobbik. By independent Peter Mark-Zee, a Catholic Conservative who won the primary in the fall. “Competition may intensify in some single-member constituencies. There are no recent polls in these constituencies and it is difficult to predict what might happen. It is important to note that the opposition is a single candidate in all of them. And this is a strategy that was successful in the 2019 municipal elections, where they were able to make Fidesz unable to use division and dominate tactics. “But I still believe that Fidesz will repeat the vast majority,” Tours said.
In a narrative turn marked by an election campaign in which the opposition initially managed to focus the debate on Hungary’s future and its decision to vote on membership in the “Western bloc”, Orb აჩვენn showed a balanced rhetoric and pragmatism. “On the one hand, he argued that Hungary should stay out of the conflict, on the other hand, he praised his experience in managing many crises over the past decade against a relatively inexperienced opposition candidate,” the analyst said.
This is the same balancing act that the Prime Minister has argued in response to the EU and NATO response to the Russian attack. He was open to increasing the presence of NATO troops in the west of the country, but opposed sending weapons to Ukraine through its territory. He also approved a bailout package for companies employing Ukrainian refugees, now numbering more than half a million in Hungary, though the opposition has criticized him for doing little on the ground, leaving the reception in the hands of NGOs, government locals and volunteers. . He backed European sanctions, but with a red line that they should not extend to energy imports (in an interview, he said it was not a matter of value, “gas is coming or not coming” and that stopping gas and oil imports from Russia would bring the economy back to ten years ago). ). And a contract with the Russian state nuclear corporation Rostom to expand the only Pax plant in Hungary, the project of which amounted to 12,500 million euros, has not been stopped.
An important role in spreading the message of “peace and low spending” ahead of the election, where for the first time in 12 years the opposition hoped to open a gap in Orbანისn’s almost absolute power. The media had it in the media. A system that the government shapes to its size.
“Hungary is an example of what we call ‘media capture’, a very high level of government control. Control Orb დაიწყოn started in 2010, when the party first won the election. There are four main elements: control of media regulators first. Then public media, use of public funds For awarding media and finally buying media from private companies, “said Marius Dragomir, director of the Media, Data and Society Center at Central European University. Orban’s government went through all the stages. “The steps were quite simple … then they started spending advertising money and using the companies of related oligarchs to control individuals.”
Coverage of the Ukraine war, which coincides with the election period, reveals how the government’s propaganda machine works, leaving the opposition with little margin of visibility. “From the very first day of the war in Ukraine, the media has been relentlessly spreading pro-Russian propaganda, which is very similar to Russian propaganda, trying to legitimize the invasion and criticizing NATO and the United States; There were talk shows on televisions close to the government. Where alleged experts questioned the idea of Ukraine as a nation; State media journalists published messages suggesting that the Ukrainian president had capitulated. Why are they doing this? There is evidence that the government issues direct orders on how it should be covered. Says Dragomir, citing Direkt36’s latest investigation, an investigative publication cited by an expert among several examples of independent journalism left in the country. Orb იცისn knows that many Hungarians are against the war and he balances it: on the one hand, the state media spreads pro-Russian propaganda, while he generally speaks against the war and not against Putin.
The so-called anti-LGTBI law passed by the Hungarian parliament last year vetoed the dissemination of homosexual or gender content in schools and children’s television programs, as well as aimed at controlling the media. A rule in which critics see the shadow of Russia’s endorsement in 2013, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called “shameful” and for which Brussels has opened a procedure for violating fundamental rights. Orban responded by doubling disobedience and calling a referendum, he said, “for the protection of children.” Voting now coincides with the general election.
Voters will also find a ballot paper in which they will have to answer whether they support holding sex orientation seminars in schools without parental consent, or believe that gender reassignment should occur among children, or that content related to sexual orientation should also be disseminated. Children without restrictions. “The law has been in force since last summer, so technically it would not be a reason to hold a referendum, but the government is using it to mobilize its supporters,” said Aniko Gregor, a sociologist and assistant professor at Eötvös Loránd University in Budapest.
“The idea behind the referendum was to focus on the election campaign, to prolong the fight against Brussels over values, and on other issues such as corruption,” he said. Then the war in Ukraine changed the scenario and it is unclear whether the referendum will be successful. Human rights groups in Hungary are urging voters to cancel the vote, as the referendum will be disrupted if at least 50% of voters do not vote correctly.
If, as polls suggest, Orb .n achieves its fourth victory in a row at 58, it will be its most difficult period. The government will have to deal with a slowdown in economic growth as a result of the Ukraine war, rising inflation and a deficit that set a record in February after Orban distributed 1.8 billion euros before the election. € 4.8 billion) tax cuts, pensions and wage increases. And funds from a European pandemic recovery plan frozen by the European Commission for Hungary and Poland, linking the funds to guarantees of the rule of law, are still blocked. “This is a significant risk, but Fidesz points to the economic and humanitarian crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, putting pressure on Brussels … and in this context, there could be room for compromise between Hungary and the EU,” Tours said. . Pressure on Brussels may seek to reshape the axis between Budapest and Warsaw, after distancing itself from different positions on the Russian attack on Ukraine, which has led to the so-called Visegrad Group Summit – Alliance. Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary – scheduled for March 30 and 31.
Where change is not expected is the attitude of the government towards civil rights and control of civil society. “Orban has created an appropriate system of institutions, organizations from the civil sector, academia, which receive much more funds and financial assistance from the state,” explains sociologist Gregory. So independent organizations and non-governmental organizations will have to rely more on funding from EU institutions or other international donors, and then they will be considered and subsequently established by the government as “foreign agents” who spread ideas that threaten their interests. Of Hungary. “The colonization of civil society will increase because loyalty to the government is the equivalent of survival.”
Source: El Diario
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
