Although it is currently assumed that there have been ten “cold-asterfalls” throughout Europe compared to one heat-astring, this ratio is likely to change as the temperature rises. A research team has now estimated that in scenarios with severe heat in the European cities the number of deaths as a result of heat will dominate in the future.
The effect is accordingly strong in the Mediterranean Sea area and Eastern Europe, but Austria could become a kind of ‘hotspot’ in Central Europe.
The aim of the study, led by Pierre Masselot of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, was to estimate the number of premature deaths as a result of cold and heat throughout Europe as climate change progresses. To classify: excessive death in connection with cold does not only mean cases where people freeze to death.
Rather, it is about the increase in the number of deaths when the temperature is even slightly lower than the ideal range with a minimum death of approximately 20 degrees Celsius. As is known, the cooler it is, the more often airway disorders occur and the weaker the immune system is average.
Higher temperatures affect an aging population
The team estimated how different climate scenarios could influence 854 urban centers in Europe, taking into account the expected age structure of the local population. For example, if a strong average temperature rise in an area affects on average a relatively old population, the death as a result of heat and the consequences for the blood circulation increase. At the same time, the deaths decrease as a result of cold as a result of the generally milder winters.
While in the now very unrealistic climate scenario with a moderate temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level by the end of the century, an average overhang of approximately 6,000 heating cases per year would be expected, this value increases from a temperature rise Almost 70,000 of four degrees, the scientists write in their article. However, the fluctuations in these figures are very large: in the last scenario, the numbers vary from 16,000 to 136,000, for example.
With more extreme assumptions, there is a fairly strong effect in Austria
In their argumentation, the authors of the research strongly rely on the socio-economic path “SSP3-7.0” from the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This scenario assumes that the emissions of greenhouse gases will continue to rise in a world characterized by conflicts and nationalism, which will lead to a rise of temperature towards the four degrees towards the end of the century. If this happens and virtually no adjustment measures are taken, between 2050 and 2054 there would be an average of about 36,000 less cold-related deaths in Southern Europe. On the other hand, around 82,000 people died prematurely due to the heat.
Dramatic effects in Austria
For Austria there would be a surplus of deaths during this period due to the heat of nearly 12,000 people if no counter -measures are taken. This means that the negative effects in Austria, such as Switzerland or the south of Germany or Poland, are more pronounced than in other areas of Central Europe. The researchers call this a ‘Central European hotspot’.
Large regional differences
Overall, the calculations of the Masselot team are subject to many uncertainties, as different experts have explained to the German Science Media Center (SMC). You can also see this by the very large fluctuations in the information, which often enable net effects in the other direction with more moderate climate assumptions. According to the authors of the research, their calculations indicate that heat -related deaths in many European metropolitan areas can rise relatively strongly if the temperature rise is not curbed whether no counter -measures are taken, such as behavioral adjustments or structural measures, such as more green spaces. In cities or air conditioning. The north of Europe, on the other hand, could also benefit from this.
Despite the great inaccuracies in the results, the research shows “that in Europe in the course of this century the number of deaths due to heat will probably be greater than the number of deaths due to cold,” said Barbara Schumann of Linnaeus University in Kalmar (Sweden ). The SMC. The situation in southern Europe and the large regional differences in the SSP3-7.0 path, which is currently “fairly realistic” from a current perspective, are particularly worrying.
Source: Krone
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