New calculations show that the chance of an impact of the Asteroid 2024 JR4 on earth is less than feared. On 19 February, telescopic observations led to a recroring of the probability of an impact in 2032. This was reduced to 1.5 percent compared to the previously estimated 3.1 percent – the highest threat per registered.
According to Richard Moissl, head of the Planetary Defense Office of the European Space Organization (ESA) in Frascati, Italy, this value is expected to continue to fall to less than one percent. According to the current article in the “Nature” Journal specialist, the continuous data evaluation reduces the uncertainties in the calculated process of the asteroid.
Before that, the earth was still in the middle of the possible impact corridor, but the current calculations show that our planet is now more on the edge of this region.
“Question is not whether it happens, but when”
The Asteroid 2024 -JR4 offers researchers a first opportunity to test the new international protocol on the reaction to potential threats. This procedure was introduced in 2013 after the unexpected impact of the meteorite of Tscheljabinsk. With the increasing availability of new asteroid monitoring telescopes, more of these potential impact events will probably be registered in the future, says Moissl: “The question is not whether it will happen, but when.”
Early Warning System in Action
Asteroids regularly appear in the observations of the scientists, but rarely with a high chance of impact like YR4. After the heavenly body was first seen in December 2023, the calculated chance of impact exceeded 1 percent on January 27, 2024. This activated the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) imposed by the United Nations.
Since then, network scientists have been working intensively to calculate the exact speed and the process of the asteroid, Moissl reports. Their goal is to reduce the risk to less than one percent before 2024 JR4 disappears from the visual area of earth -bound telescopes in April and will only be observed in 2028.
Science, “to save the world”
IAWN regularly performs training scenarios with hypothetical asteroids. Scientists learn to concentrate on the most important measurements to quickly and precisely predict when and where an asteroid can be stuck and what potential damage could occur.
Vishnu Reddy, planetary scientist at the University of Arizona and manager of Iainn, compares this work with the rapid analysis of data from meteorologists and seismologists. “You have to understand that you run science here to save the world – to say it that way.”
Source: Krone
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