Researchers want to have the pope code cracked

On the evening of 8 May, when white smoke from the chimney of the Sixtine Chapel Rose and Prevost (now Leo XIV) as the new Pope for the world audience, the surprise was great. Because almost nobody had him on the bill – neither believers nor gambling agencies.

Most of them had seen Cardinal Pietro Parolin as a clear favorite – the chance that the choice will fall on him was estimated at around 30 percent. Prevost, on the other hand, did not even appear by many bookmakers, but only among “others” – with a chance of little more than two percent.

But while the public was enigmatic, researchers from the Milan Economic University Luigi Bocconi had already identified a clear favorite – and were exactly right.

A model for an old ritual
Giuseppe soft drinks, Alessandro Iorio and Leonardo Rizzo investigated the pope election with methods of social network analysis – a scientific tool that is normally used in sociology, organizational research or in company decisions. Their goal was not to predict the new pope, but to understand which social structures within the Cardinal College lead to a certain candidate as a candidate.

Because even behind the closed doors of the conclave, mechanisms that are reminiscent of the choice of a president or the appointment of a CEO, the researchers – only that they are embedded in a system of rituals in a system.

The Vatican as a social network
The researchers considered Cardinal College as a complex network consisting of official collaborations, spiritual dedication and informal relationships, such as ideological similarities or mentorrelations.

Based on this data, they defined three central factors for the awareness of a cardinal in the network: status – which is not only good network, but also associated with the most influential personalities? Information check – Who acts as a bridge between groups and therefore arranges the flow of information? Coality power – who is anchored in trust groups and can majorities organize?

An extra criterion: age. Here the team was based on historical election data – popes should ideally not be too young or too old.

Unexpected CO -provisions, not Italian
The result: Robert Francis Prevost was in the first place in the general position, before cardinals such as Lazzaro You Heung-Sik (South Korea), Arthur Roche (Great Britain) and Jean-Marc-noble (France). Even if other cardinals are better off in individual categories – Prevost combined all the criteria in an ideal average.

No oracle, but a useful tool
“We don’t claim that we predicted the pope,” says study director Giuseppe Soda. The model is rather an instrument for analyzing power structures and decision processes. The famous meaning of the George Box statistics – “All models are wrong, but some are useful” – is the program here.

Nevertheless: the agreement between model and reality is surprised. Because, in contrast to Benedict XVI, which was deeply anchored in the Vatican power, or Francis, who came “from the end of the world” as an outsider, the type of candidate seems to be that the model identifies as a consensus.

Between algorithm and inspiration
The fact that a complex, including spiritually charged process, such as the pope election, can at least be explained in part by social sciences, shows: even in a ritual accused of confidentiality, divine inspiration and centuries of symbolism, very earthly mechanisms. Relationships, influence, trust and strategic alliances play a key role.