In the midst of this year’s second heat wave, the Central Institute of Meteorology for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) is issuing a warning. The number of warm days in Austria has not only doubled or tripled in recent decades, but without global climate protection this value will rise again by 2100.
According to the ZAMG, the number of warm days (at least 30 degrees) in Austria has multiplied in recent decades. From 1961 to 1990, there were between three and 12 warm days a year in the provincial capitals, and the records were usually 20 warm days a year.
Climate models not very optimistic
From 1991 to 2020, there were between nine and 23 warm days in the capital cities in an average year, and the records were usually more than 40 warm days. “The climate models give us good predictions of the increase in heat in recent years. Now they show very clearly how different the future will be depending on the degree of global climate protection,” said Marc Olefs, head of climate research at the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG).
Heat waves become the “normal”
“The current extreme figure of 40 hot days a year in Austria will be the norm by the year 2100 if global greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. The records are then in a currently unimaginable range of 60 to 80 warm days per year. If the Paris climate target is met, the number of warm days in Austria could level off just above current levels,” Olefs said.
Heat is still underestimated as a danger because it is often difficult to prove whether, for example, a death was caused by cardiovascular disease or a heat wave. However, according to the ZAMG, numerous studies show that in Europe significantly more people die from heat waves than from storms, floods or other extreme weather events.
Heat already deadlier than road traffic
The Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES) has been monitoring heat mortality for several years in collaboration with ZAMG. “In four of the last ten years, more people died from the heat in Austria than from road traffic,” says Olefs.
Regional adaptation measures, for example in urban development such as greening and shadowing, to absorb the effects of the heat, will therefore be just as important in the coming years as committed global climate protection.
Also in 2022 above average hot
According to ZAMG’s forecast, 2022 will also be an above-average warm year. “In the whole of Austria, the number of hot days is already above an entire year average in the period 1961 to 1990, and in many regions only a few warm days are missing from the average values of the already very hot climate period 1991 to 2020,” says Olefs. “So by the end of July this year we should have reached the warm day target for a whole year in most of Austria.”
Source: Krone
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
