The next government will be number 68 since World War II: they lasted an average of 13 months
This October 27 will mark the centenary of the start of the March on Rome, the coup by which thousands of fascists marched towards the Italian capital to promote Benito Mussolini’s seizure of power. As the country’s next general election will be held on September 25, the new government can be expected to take office in the second half of next month, when this important event takes place. The coincidence is particularly troubling for the left-wing forces, as the polls predict a victory in the elections of the conservative bloc, led by the candidate of the Sovereign Party of the Brothers of Italy (HdI), Giorgia Meloni, and whose League of Matteo Salvini and Forza Italia (FI), the political force of Silvio Berlusconi.
The new Executive to come out of the polls’ next appointment will be the country’s number 68 since World War II, having lasted a little over 13 months on average. The one who was led by Mario Draghi until the collapse of the governing coalition this week, and who will remain in office until the next government is formed, has had a somewhat longer life, a year and a half. It was the legislature’s third, which began in 2018. First there was one formed by an alliance between the populist 5 Star Movement (M5E), the party with the most votes in the previous elections, and the League. It lasted only one year and three months and was led by Giuseppe Conte. Salvini energized it into a crazy August with the idea of enforcing the fall call for snap elections, which he hoped to sweep after his formation secured 34% in the May 2019 European elections.
Salvini was left with the desire on that occasion, as the M5E negotiated a new alliance, in this case with the Democratic Party and other small forces from the left and center, to give life to the second government led by Conte. That Executive didn’t live much longer either: he lasted a year and five months. The person responsible for bringing him down on that occasion was Matteo Renzi, former prime minister and leader of the Italia Viva party, who maneuvered to make Draghi the next head of the Italian government, supported by a heterogeneous coalition made up of nine political forces with different ideologies, which ranged from the extreme left to the sovereign right.
“Italy has been experiencing political instability for years that is more stable than it seems,” explains Mattia Diletti, a political science professor at La Sapienza University in Rome, for whom the crisis caused by the fall of the Draghi Executive is nothing more than a new one. manifestation of a structural flaw that has existed for decades and that citizens have learned to deal with despite the political and economic costs involved. “At the root of the problem is the fragility of the parties, their transformism and the lack of roots they suffer from in society today,” says the professor of La Sapienza.
In any case, this problem dates back to the time of Tangentopoli, the corruption scandal that rocked the political system in the early 1990s and killed the two main forces, Christian Democracy and the Socialist Party. The end of almost five decades of certain stability thanks to the dichotomy, seasoned with the struggles between the internal currents of the formations, which led to the fall of some governments, left behind a huge parliamentary fragmentation, which is another of the causes of the usual political crises. That power vacuum was cleverly filled by Berlusconi with his political being, Forza Italia. Thanks to his vitola as a successful self-made businessman made famous by his television channels, the tycoon won his first election in 1994 and since that campaign he has been the star of the Italian electoral landscape, divided between supporters and opponents of his figure.
“That Forza Italia was the daughter of what happened in the 80s. It was a libertarian party that was in a government that could be defined as center right, while the executive that could now come with HDI, the League and FI” center-right,” warns Giovanni Orsina, professor of political science at Luiss-Guido Carli University in Rome, for whom this week’s political crisis has pushed conservative formations into more right-wing positions. The League and FI, which were part of the governing coalition led by Draghi, have been dragged down by HdI, which, by remaining the only opposition power, has managed to climb in the polls to become the formation that has the largest voting intention today. has , almost 24%. “And that Meloni didn’t have to do anything during the legislature. He has limited himself to saying ‘no’ to everything and calling early elections,” Orsina underlines.
The next election could also be the chance to end a major anomaly that partly explains the instability of the past decade: since 2011, there has been no Italian prime minister directly elected by the citizens in the elections. Since Berlusconi handed over the reins to financial crisis-choked technocrat Mario Monti, all heads of government have come to power thanks to agreements between the parties. These pacts are inherently unstable and very sensitive to the mood swings that the successive municipal, regional and European elections cause in the parties. “The Italian political system has been improvising since 2011, finding solutions to survive one crisis after another,” says Diletti.
Recent Italian history suggests that it will be difficult for the next government not to also be shaken by internal tensions and ego struggles. The battle for positions has already begun: Salvini kicked off the election campaign by announcing on social networks his intention to return to the Interior Ministry. Nor will it be easy for the conservative bloc to figure out who would lead the Executive. Meloni insists that whoever gets the most votes from the three parties does, but it’s not at all clear that if that honor matches HdI, she will become prime minister.
“I don’t know if any right-wing government would be led by Meloni. Let’s not forget that under the Constitution, the appointment of the Prime Minister is a responsibility of the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella,” said Orsina, pointing to the work that the Head of State will do to ensure the pro-European and Atlantic position of Italy.
Source: La Verdad
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