It is not yet completely clear when it comes to Corona, but spring has a very positive effect on the further course of the pandemic. As the Covid Forecast Consortium explained on Wednesday, not only should the number of infections be nearly halved soon, but the burden on hospitals – which is still immense – appears to be steadily diminishing.
While as of Wednesday 226 Covid patients were reported in intensive care units and 2,873 in normal wards, the point estimates for next week are 183 and 2106 respectively. The seven-day incidence should go from the current 1431 to 740.
New infections generally decrease
For the last forecast day, therefore, a seven-day incidence of between 590 and 980 cases per 100,000 population is expected. While the development of new infections is still declining in all age groups, the peak in the older populations occurred with a delay of approximately two weeks relative to the rest of the population, explaining the delayed decline in hospital occupancy.
Hospitals not yet in normal operation
Specifically, the experts expect 161 to 209 Covid patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) next Wednesday with a point estimate of 183. In the normal wards, 1856 to 2388 non-life-threatening Covid cases with inpatient care needs are assumed. The point estimator is 2106.
Two weeks after Easter, on Wednesday, April 20, the number of ICU patients is forecast to be 109 to 165, with a point estimate of 134, and the normal wards are assumed to be 1,124 to 1,794. The point estimate here is 1420.
Fewer tests did not increase positivity
It was also noted that the decline in testing has not led to an increase in the positivity rate in a federal state, so it can be ruled out that the decline in testing is the cause of the current decline in reported cases. The predicted new infections then range between 7622 and 12547 with a point estimate of 9509 cases.
The lowest incidence is expected in Tyrol (360-590) and the highest incidence in Vienna (770-1300). All forecasts are based on April 5 data.
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
