Less employment, of lower quality and poorly paid, this is what the labor market will look like in 2023


Less employment, of lower quality and poorly paid, this is what the labor market will look like in 2023

The ILO warns in a report that workers will be forced to accept precarious jobs as occupation will only grow by 1% this year

Despite the fact that the labor market in Spain showed strong – and so far unprecedented – resilience in the face of the crisis caused by the price escalation and the war in Ukraine, a “significant deterioration” was already observed at the global level. And by 2023 it will not improve, but will get worse. For example, the International Labor Organization (ILO) warned on Tuesday in its report ‘Social Outlook and Employment in the World: Trends 2023’, in which it estimates that world employment will grow by barely 1% this year, less than half of the registered increase in 2022 (2.3%), and in addition it will be lower quality and lower paid work.

This will further exacerbate inequalities that were already exacerbated by the crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic, as many countries have not yet recovered pre-pandemic employment levels (Spain has done this and, of course, in fact it has a reached an all-time high, although it failed to bring GDP back to 2019 levels).

The agency also does not foresee “no significant improvement” for 2024, when it believes employment growth will rise to just 1.1%, reflecting that “likely” global labor supply growth will continue to slow, translating into in a “significant shortage of workers”, especially in advanced economies (where Spain is said to be located). “The outlook is bleak for high-income countries, where job growth will be close to zero. In contrast, in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, employment growth will exceed the pre-pandemic growth trend,” he says.

On the other hand, the number of unemployed will break the downward trend of the past two years and, given the “scarce supply” of work in high-income countries, will increase globally by about three million people by 2023, reaching a total of 208 million unemployed, which corresponds to a rate of 5.8%, double that of Spain. This would mean that we will end 2023 with 16 million more unemployed than in 2019, before the covid-19 crisis.

“Due to slower growth in global employment, it is unlikely that the losses incurred during the Covid-19 crisis can be recovered before 2025,” said Richard Samans, director of the ILO’s research division and coordinator of the report.

As a result of this global slowdown, the current scarcity of opportunities to improve working conditions is “likely” to worsen in 2023 and workers will be forced to accept lower-quality jobs, “low-paid, without job security and social protection,” the report says. . In addition, it believes that real wages will deteriorate as a result of the contraction in business investment, which will push workers back into informal jobs.

“Much of the gains made in poverty reduction over the past decade have been limited, just as the convergence of living standards and job quality is declining as global productivity growth slows, making it difficult to address shortages of decent work,” the study explains. .

Source: La Verdad


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