Two years ago today, Karl Nehammer was sworn in. Will he stay with us as Chancellor for many years to come? That is more than doubtful. While there is a scenario that could allow for an extension…
Today may be one of the few days where there is something to celebrate in the ÖVP. Karl Nehammer is probably toasting with his companions on the anniversary of his chancellorship. It was granted to him. With the way politics are going now, even two years in office is a masterpiece!
Nehammer as election winner? Unlikely!
If you are realistic, Karl Nehammer still won’t have to get used to these festivities. The chances that he will emerge as a clear winner after the next elections are more than unlikely. This means that the right to the Chancellery is no longer valid. Except …
All parties against Kickl
…the ÖVP forms a losing coalition together with the SPÖ. Based on current opinion polls, this is the only way Nehammer can remain as head of state. And since all parties will join forces against Chancellor Kickl, a black-red coalition – with or without third party participation, depending on the election results – is currently the most likely.
Whether this will be well received by voters is another question. If the election winner does not become chancellor, the republic will, to put it plainly, collapse. A possible Nehammer-Babler coalition would certainly not have an easy time with the population. Kickl just has to wait and then he can win a big victory in the next elections.
What the past few weeks have taught us
There is a large element of uncertainty in all these mind games. Besides the fact that today of course no one knows what the outcome of next year’s elections will be, the question remains: would Nehammer really stay after an electoral defeat? Actually impossible, but when it comes to gluing chairs, we have been amazed in recent weeks at what is possible.
I am George Kunkel, an author working for Today Times Live. I specialize in opinion pieces and cover stories that are both informative and thought-provoking – helping to shape public discourse on key issues. My work is regularly featured across the network’s many platforms, including print media and social media.