NI election analysis: ‘Surge alliance’ may again redraw power-sharing

If public opinion polls are to be believed, the outcome of the upcoming Stormont Council elections will have two dominant scenarios.

The first, which may be important in media headlines, is whether the DUP or Sinn Fein is the larger party.

The second is to what extent other small parties that do not call themselves united or nationalist will do well.

While this secondary narrative may not make up many front pages, as a result, it could have far-reaching implications for the future of power-sharing.

The largest of these parties, which means “other” in the assembly, is the Alliance party.

With voters frustrated in Stormont’s predicament after the RHI controversy, the coalition crossed the 10% mark in the city council and the 2019 European elections.

At the end of the same year in the Westminster snap election, the party’s vote had risen by nearly nine percentage points to 16.8%, with Deputy Leader Stephen Fary winning the parliamentary seat in North Down.

Some have questioned whether he will be able to “grow the coalition” after the reconfiguration of the redeployed government in 2020, but a series of polls show that this has happened.

They noted that the coalition could increase by 9.1% over the fifth-largest party in 2017 and eight seats by more than 15% in the third-largest double-digit number of seats.

Lagan Valley, North Belfast, South Down and Upper Bann are among the main areas in which the party seeks to protect the new MLAs.

The party also has several secondary goals that can make the day particularly powerful, such as West Tyrone, North Antrim, and the second MLA in East Antrim.

It’s a surprisingly comfortable situation, with polls showing other parties, such as the DUP and Sinn Féin, struggling to hold the seats they currently hold.

Some question whether the coalition’s work could be hampered by the reborn Unionist Party led by Doug Petty, whose social liberal values ​​might appeal to Alliance voters.

Naomi Long told Belfast Live that it was a “flawed analysis” of the idea that voters would vote for the UAU if they didn’t vote for the coalition, adding that “our values ​​and vision are different”.

The coalition leader said Petty’s efforts last year revealed that the poaching of the DUP led by Sir Jeffrey Donaldson “wasn’t much of a difference” between the two union parties.

He also questioned the UUP’s “progressive” credentials and followed the party’s way of recently opposing the coalition’s proposal to fly transgender flags in Armah, Banbridge and Cregon district councils.

“The idea of ​​a progressive presence is not the only thing a leader can talk about, so the rest of the party will continue as normal,” Ms Long said.

The Alliance wants to define its own political space, and configure itself as supply-oriented, while political opponents are passive.

Speaking at her last party conference, Ms Long accused Stormont’s rivals of being “addicted to crises and struggles”.

But by increasing coalition votes, the party must also cross the line between demanding unionist and nationalist voters and avoid union or a potential electoral threat to Irish unity.

In interviews leading up to the conference, Ms Long said the coalition would “undoubtedly” take a stand on the constitutional issue at some point in the future.

The redistributed Stormont institutions were designed to facilitate the sharing of power between unionists and nationalists.

But if support for the coalition and other multiple parties, such as the Green Party, continues to grow, Stormont will increasingly be defined by three core blocs instead of two.

Mechanisms such as the intergovernmental veto on concerns currently operate in a way that rejects MLA voices that mean “other”.

Coalition chancellor Nawala McAllister has also warned that it would be “undemocratic” if her party were denied positions as first deputy minister because they would not call it united or nationalist.

If the “other” sound reaches new heights in May, Stormont’s power-sharing structures will come under increasing pressure to be re-engineered to reflect a new balance of power.