Pact of the losers – Why the earthquake in Lower Austria now also affects the federal government

The black eminence attracted the cameras as if she were still the absolute ruler of Lower Austria. Erwin Proell, ÖVP governor for almost a quarter of a century. He was briefly seen on the 4th floor of the mansion in St. Pölten, but was not within reach. Only later in the evening. For the “crown”. Not a trace of enthusiasm.

“Surveys were quite accurate”
“Everyone seemed calm in ÖVP headquarters. They clearly knew what was going to happen,” says political analyst Peter Plaikner, who was there. The latest studies were quite accurate, says Christoph Haselmayer of the Institute for Public Opinion and Data Analysis.

According to experts, the earthquake will also affect the federal government. You also see the ÖVP with the SPÖ and vice versa as a future supra-regional model. Plaikner: “We now have that in Carinthia, Styria, Tyrol and now probably also in Lower Austria.”

Tailwind gives the Blues more wings
For the FPÖ, the tailwind from Lower Austria means another factor for the storm at the summit. For the Turquoises and Greens who rule in the federal government, this could mean the loss of the majority in the Bundesrat. The ÖVP is likely to lose two mandates and provide 24 of the 61 federal councilors. One of her mandates goes to the Greens, who will have six federal councilors, the second to the Party for Freedom – eleven federal councilors in the future.

ÖVP and SPÖ: “The pressure on both sides will increase”
The black and red crash is consistent with the results of recent polls. “The pressure on both parties will increase,” said Salzburg political professor Reinhard Heinisch. Neither he nor the other experts expect current staffing implications in the federal government. “The SPÖ can refer to a homegrown problem in Lower Austria. Moreover, there is currently no alternative to Pamela Rendi-Wagner.” Hans Peter Doskozil from Burgenland polarizes too much in the party: “If so, it can only be a candidate from outside.” The same applies to the ÖVP. Finance Minister Magnus Brunner and Karoline Edtstadler are traded as candidates.

Plaikner believes that even these would not pull the turquoise cart out of the swamp. “Brunner is a kind of friendlier Nehammer, Edtstadler is strong, but polarizes too much in the media,” says Reinhard Heinisch. In general, people will wait for further state elections. On March 5 in Carinthia, where the strong Reds rule with the Blacks led by Peter (Landes-)Kaiser. Then in Salzburgerland.