It is a deep fall that is unprecedented: since the start of the APA/OGM confidence index in 2003, a government has never had such weak values as the outgoing government, consisting of the ÖVP and the Greens. The reasons for this lie mainly in the crises of the past years.
In August, the turquoise-green ministers averaged just 13.3 points minus. Both the initial peak in 2020 and the subsequent crash were record-breaking. “Such a rollercoaster ride within a government term has never been seen before,” says data scientist Johannes Klotz of OGM.
After a record a hard crash followed
The confidence curve of the current turquoise-green coalition is unusual in two respects. Because immediately after take-off it experienced a hitherto unknown height.
The historic crash as a graph:
At the start of the Corona crisis, the ÖVP was well above 40 percent in the Sunday poll and in March 2020 the government also reached a new high of 19.5 points in the confidence index.
However, the steep rise was followed by an equally rapid fall: confidence levels were already in the red in 2021. In April 2023, the government members’ confidence index registered a historic low of minus 16.3 points.
What are the reasons?
From the point of view of OGM boss Wolfgang Bachmayer, the decisive factor for the demotion was, in addition to the debates on corona control (keyword: compulsory vaccination) and the inflation crisis, also the numerous committees of inquiry, which would have damaged the reputation of politics as a whole. Only after the EU elections did the government see a slight upward trend again.
The opposition could not profit from the decline in the government’s confidence index. However, positive confidence values are not a must, certainly not for opposition politicians, as the example of Herbert Kickl shows. The FPÖ leader is regularly in the lowest range, with values above minus 40. Nevertheless, his party has been in first place in the election polls for a year and a half.
The latest “Krone” survey shows that the FPÖ has the lead:
Only Sobotka is worse than Kickl
OGM data specialist Klotz explains how this works: “Kickl enjoys an extremely high level of trust among his own electorate and very little among other groups.” Only one politician recently stood behind Kickl in the trust index – namely ÖVP National Council Chairman Wolfgang Sobotka minus 50 points.
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
