Who will rule? – Your choice: it doesn’t work with or without Kickl

What is the most important discipline in an election campaign? Avoiding mistakes. The campaign teams of all the top candidates ensure 24 hours a day that their wives, whose husbands have said nothing wrong, do nothing embarrassing and do not grin stupidly like the German CDU top candidate Armin Laschet once did during the flood. All top candidates and their employees succeeded in this until the end of this election campaign. No one stumbled, no one laughed wrong, no one said things that required an apology. The biggest disruption occurred in the SPÖ…

Andreas Babler, who campaigned in Duracell bunny mode, could only do something about it to a limited extent: Doris Bures had expressed her dissatisfaction with Babler’s election program and course in an email to the members of the SPÖ party board. The digital letter was promptly sent to the “Krone” and therefore to the public (see fax below).

Babler then apologized profusely live on ORF. Not because of the program, but because of the image that the SPÖ offers. The internal dispute continues to smolder. Hans-Peter Doskozil of Burgenland and former party leader Christian Kern are also involved on the sidelines.

Chancellor in a duel with Herbert Kickl
Karl Nehammer is not familiar with such problems; the party stands united behind him. The SPÖ problems and his chancellor’s bonus in crisis management during the flood disaster put Nehammer out of contention for second place in a duel with Herbert Kickl for first place. This means that Kickl risks losing the predicted election victory in the final meters. But the polls are more than close. Nervousness in the victorious liberal camp has increased lately, and with it the tone has become considerably rougher. He was exceptionally down-to-earth in this election campaign, even before the flood disaster.

Everyone adhered to the second most important principle in an election campaign: don’t completely smash the china. After the previous election campaign, a coalition between Sebastian Kurz and Christian Kern would have been unthinkable. On the other hand, after dirty state election campaigns, the ÖVP and FPÖ have proven how painless politics can be.

Who with whom?
Nehammer and Kickl were almost polite to each other in their TV duel. A few days earlier, things had been completely different. It seemed almost inconceivable that Nehammer and Babler could or should form a joint government after such an aggressive confrontation. But that’s exactly what is likely to happen.

Chancellor Nehammer and Vice Chancellor Babler might only need one majority funder at the NEOS. As has rarely happened before, they have courted an opposition party to join the government. The Greens appear to have resigned themselves to their fate on the opposition bench.

And the FPÖ? Not really. Parts of the leadership, officials and their voters want the party in government. This could actually work if the FPÖ does not get first place. The ÖVP, which suddenly triumphed despite percentage losses, could end up back with the FPÖ due to irreconcilable substantive differences with the SPÖ.

Their program was deliberately written as an approach to the ÖVP. This Sunday and the coming weeks depend on Herbert Kickl. If he wins, will he remain in second place as party leader and potential government member or will he leave it up to the party and the possible FPÖ governing team? To put it briefly: it doesn’t work with Kickl. It doesn’t work without Kickl.