What happens if… – An election disaster would play into Trump’s hands

America is like a powder keg. All polls indicate a very close result between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. And regardless of who ultimately comes out on top in the race for the White House, it is unlikely that the losing side will simply accept the outcome. Many fear that violent clashes could occur.

Especially if the electoral catastrophe occurs – namely if Harris and Trump end up with the same number of electoral votes: 269. Congress then determines who will become president and vice president, something that has not happened for exactly 200 years.

Why a tie helps Trump
There are several scenarios that allow for a draw. The most likely scenario is that Trump will win North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Harris will secure Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. If current predictions come true in the remaining states, neither candidate would actually cross the 270-vote mark and thus the threshold for the presidency.

In this case, the 12th Amendment applies. This states that the U.S. House of Representatives elects the president and the U.S. Senate elects the vice president with a simple majority.

This is more complicated than it seems. Because not every representative gets a vote, each of the fifty states represented must decide on a candidate. To put it more plainly, the state of Florida has 27 representatives in the U.S. House of Representatives, 14 of which are Republicans and 13 of which are Democrats. That would essentially mean that Republicans could push through their favorite candidate with a simple majority. Since conservatives make up the majority of representatives in 26 states, Trump would almost certainly be the next president of the United States.

In the Senate, each senator has one vote to elect the vice president. In this case, however, it is the composition of the next Senate, which will also be determined by the current elections. And according to all predictions, the Democrats will lose their narrow majority. Which would mean the vice president would also be a Republican, i.e. JD Vance.

The last time the House of Representatives elected the president was in 1824 based on the constitutional amendment passed in 1804. At the time, the majority of parliamentary delegations voted for John Quincy Adams, with rival Andrew Jackson losing. If the same procedure takes place two centuries later, the loser will not simply accept this.

It is very likely that the Supreme Constitutional Court will ultimately have to confirm the elections. You don’t have to be a prophet to imagine the negative consequences this government crisis will have for the deeply divided country.