Close race – When the winner of the US election could be determined

Four years ago, due to an impasse in the swing state of Pennsylvania, it took more than five days before Joe Biden’s victory was assured. In Pennsylvania, mail-in votes were counted for days after the polls on Tuesday.

The decision likely won’t be made on election night
This year there could be a dacapo on this front, as the east coast state’s 19 electoral votes also play a decisive role in the match between US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump, along with six other disputed states: North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). Because the race is also very close there and in some cases postal votes are still being counted for days, the chances of a decision on election night are not that good.

• 00:00 CET – Here we go: the first polling stations close in the states of Kentucky (8) and Indiana (11). But there are no forecasts yet as voting is still taking place in some regions.
• 1:00 am – After the elections close in six states, Trump and Harris will get their first electors fairly quickly. Indiana (11 electoral votes), Kentucky (8) and South Carolina (9) are considered Republican strongholds, Vermont (3) and Virginia (13) are considered Democratic. But Georgia (16) is also the first swing state. Biden narrowly won the election four years ago, becoming the first Democrat to do so in three decades. Especially in the event of a close outcome, a reliable result from the southern state will only be available after days. Expected score: 28 to 16 for Trump.
• 1:30 am – Voting deadlines in West Virginia (4), North Carolina (16) and Ohio (17). The four voters from deep-red West Virginia will immediately go to Trump’s bill, and probably also the one from Ohio (17). However, the race is open in North Carolina, but no decision is expected there on election night because of mail-in votes. Ohio is a ‘must win’ for Trump, who clearly defeated Hillary Clinton there four years ago. A close race or even a Harris lead would be bad news for Trump and a bad omen for the outcome in the neighboring swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Projected score: 49 to 16 for Trump.

• 2:00 am – Polls close in 14 states and the capital district, including Florida (30) and the swing state of Pennsylvania (19). While in the Sunshine State, mail-in votes and early voters are being counted before Election Day and a forecast could be available soon, this is unlikely to happen in Pennsylvania. Trump and Harris will still be busy collecting electoral votes at 2 a.m. because the other states are consistently “safely” Democratic and Republican.

  Trump should be able to account for the votes of Florida (30), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11) and the second constituency in Maine (1). Harris representing Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), Maine (3 of 4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), Rhode Island ( 4) and Washington DC (3). Expected interim result: 123 against 94 for Trump.

• 2:30 am – Election deadline in deep red Arkansas (6). It is the earliest possible time for a declaration of victory because the now closed states represent 274 of the 538 electors. In fact, both candidates will be far from the magic number 270. Expected interim result: 129 to 94 for Trump.
• 3:00 am – Polling stations are closing again in 15 states, including the swing states of Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10), which changed from Democrats to Republicans and back again between 2016 and 2020, and Arizona (11), which was narrowly closed. captured by Biden four years ago. There too, it will probably depend on the postal votes, which will be counted at the end of this week. In the latter part of the election campaign, another so-called swing state suddenly appeared due to a survey, Iowa (6), which was previously deeply red. The survey by the highly respected Selzer Institute showed that Harris was surprisingly ahead with 47 to 44 percent.

  But because postal votes will still be counted there for days, a reliable result seems doubtful. The Democrat will almost certainly be able to gather another 54 voters by mid-election night, namely in Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), New York (28) and Nebraska’s second congressional district. (1). Trump, in turn, can count on 67 votes from Texas (40), Louisiana (8), Kansas (6), Nebraska (4 out of 5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3) and Wyoming (3). Expected interim result: 196 against 148 for Trump.

• 4:00 am – Voting deadline in three states, but counting is quite slow. But Utah (6) and Montana (4) are a bench for Trump. However, Nevada (6) is one of the swing states. Expected interim result: 206 against 148 for Trump.
• 5:00 am – A boost for Harris comes with the polls in California (54), Washington (12) and Oregon (8). The three states are among the largest Democratic strongholds in the US. Trump will also clearly win the state of Idaho (4). The Democrat will probably take the lead for the first time on election night. Expected score: 222 to 210 for Harris.
• 06:00/07:00 – Hawaii (4) and Alaska (3) are the last US states to close polling stations. Hawaii will definitely go to Harris, Alaska will most likely go to Trump. But the results in the latter may also take a long time to arrive, because postal votes will only be counted from November 10. However, it is considered unlikely that the outcome of the presidential election will hinge on either of these two states. Expected interim result without a result from one of the seven swing states: 226 against 210 for Harris.