Support for Trump: economic crises strengthen populist parties

In the new elections for the German Bundestag in February, the economic crisis of recent years is likely to be responsible for around two percentage points of the vote share of populist parties. If wage increases at least offset inflation, the vote increase (plus 1.3 percentage points) would be lower, it is said.

“Extreme parties benefit when price increases are higher than expected and workers and other economic actors have not had the opportunity to prepare for inflation through appropriate wage increases,” said Jonathan Federl of the IfW. He and his team analyzed 365 elections in 18 industrialized countries between 1948 and 2023.

Inflation increases dissatisfaction
One of the most important outcomes: unexpectedly rapidly rising consumer prices not only have consequences for voting behavior, but also increase dissatisfaction among the population. For example, there are eight percent more demonstrations if actual inflation is one percentage point higher than expected.

According to the research, positive surprises reduce the number of people joining populist and extremist parties. “The results cast a spotlight on the upcoming snap federal elections (February 23, 2025, note), as inflation and growth in Germany have deviated significantly from expectations over the past three years,” Federle said. Support for radical parties has probably increased on both the left and the right.