Current research shows – Before state elections: “No Tyrolean messiah in sight”

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The current IMAD survey commissioned by “Krone” eight weeks before the Tyrolean state elections caused a stir on Sunday. For the first time, the People’s Party fell below 30 percent. Another part of the investigation concerns the election of the governor. VP boss Anton Mattle is clearly leading the way, but there is still a lot of room for improvement.

The survey was the political topic of discussion in Tyrol on Sunday. Especially from the point of view of the People’s Party, which would currently get only 29.1 percent. The renowned Tyrolean IMAD Institute surveyed 600 people aged 16 and over from July 22 to 25, the fluctuation range is +/- 3.9 percent.

ÖVP boss Mattle on the LH question
They were also asked who the Tyroleans would like to be their governor. As expected, top ÖVP candidate Anton Mattle is clearly in the lead here – he comes in at 43.6 percent. In second place is FPÖ chairman Markus Abwerzger (14.6%), followed by Gebi Mair of the Greens and SPÖ boss Georg Dornauer. Andrea Haselwanter-Schneider of the Fritz list (8.6%) and pink frontman Dominik Oberhofer (8.4%) are on equal footing for the governor’s question.

Mattle should really be leading the way
“The research shows one thing clearly: there is currently no sign of a political messiah in Tyrol,” analyzed political scientist Prof. Christian Traweger of the University of Innsbruck.

And further: “After Anton Mattle was officially elected party chairman at the state party conference and is now campaigning as the top candidate, compared to the June poll, where just over 44 percent was still decided for him, is now increasing significantly and approaching 50 percent, but current research also shows that it is currently not exceeding 44 percent.”

No serious opponent for the VP on the LH question
The research also shows that none of the other top candidates can really score with the population and in some cases is even well behind the party results. According to Professor Traweger, another analysis of the data shows that Neos and List Fritz clearly benefit from the Tyrolean People’s Party on the Sunday issue, but their voters prefer Anton Mattle when it comes to the issue of the provincial governor.

According to Christian Traweger, this is especially evident in the case of the Pink Party, where less than 70 percent of Neos voters would choose Dominik Oberhofer as governor. But even with the SPÖ, only 80 percent of the red electorate would elect Georg Dornauer as governor!

From today’s perspective, the VP loses six mandates
From the current perspective, the Tyrolean People’s Party would drop from 17 to 11 seats. The FPÖ would increase by one mandate to six, the Greens from four to five and List Fritz and Neos would double from two to four. The SPÖ around Georg Dornauer were able to keep their current six mandates.

Source: Krone

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