Raphinha, deadly!: The truth that explains why he is the most decisive striker in Europe

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There are no more words to describe the season Raphinhaone of the offensive references of Hansi Flick’s Barça and one of the best football players today. Not for nothing, the Brazilian is the second scorer in this Champions League after Tuesday’s matchday 8 goals (all games) after Lewandowski 9although the Pole managed 3 of them from penalties. Behind the two Blaugrana players is the Dortmund striker in the scoring ranking. Serhou Guirassy (7) – 4 penalties -, the red and white Julian Alvarez (6) and Vinicius (5) – 1 penalty -.

But let’s get to Da Luz’s big game. Against Benfica, the Brazilian attacker He was decisive by scoring the goal that decided the match for the last 4-5. Run, counterattack, cutback, left foot, celebration and victory. He added two goals to his personal tally on the penultimate day of the Champions League, the showcase where Raphinha shined most.

There is no scenario against Raphinha, but the former Leeds shines exceedingly in the highest continental competition. Raphinha is life insurance for Barça. His contribution is most visible in the numbers he has accumulated. But There is a figure that shows that Raphinha is the most productive player in Europe and that is unrivaled in this sense.

Leader in Europe in ‘Expected Goals’

The ‘big data’ indicates that Raphinha is the footballer with the highest xG differential of all participants in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League. Or what is the same: Raphinha is the player adding more goals than he should have accumulated according to his xG. xG differential is a metric that determines whether a player meets the number of goals assigned to him by xG – expected goal -. If a player scores 5 goals and xG says he should have scored 3 given the number and type of chances he had throughout the campaign, this means he scored two more goals than expected If the balance is negative, it means that his scoring performance does not follow what the advanced statistics see: if a footballer should have scored 5 goals according to xG and he has 3, his xG that norm is -2.

This is not the case with Raphinha, who in European competition has an xG differential of 5.07 goals. This is because He beat the rival goalkeeper on 8 occasions when the expected goal metric predicted he would ‘only’ score 2.93. In the European competitions now underway, only Julián Álvarez, Atlético’s new hero, comes close with a 4.47 positive balance. But no one takes advantage of situations better than the Brazilian winger, top scorer so far this season: He has more goals in all competitions, 22, than he scored last season combined (10) and the former (also 10).

xG is calculated taking into account the shot, the zone, the context of the game and the disposition of a goalkeeper in a given scoring opportunity. Based on the study of a history of thousands of identical shots and the probability of landing on the scoreboard, it is concluded that a certain shot has a certain xG. If Raphinha scored more than he should have, it was because He optimized each column and because his goal was the one chosen: 9 shots on goal in the Champions League, 8 goals. 88.89% effectiveness. Raphinha broke the machine.

Source: La Verdad

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