Experts point to the conquests, but believe that the war depends on the ultimate balance of power between Moscow and Kiev
The latest events in Donbas give rise to Western analyzes that predicted a favorable turn of the war for Ukraine in June. It should be remembered that the Russian army at that time experienced the military euphoria that its rivals show today. His units took the entire region of Lugansk and even forced Ukrainian troops to retreat in disarray from strategic cities like Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, in addition to the height of the infamous siege of the Azovstal factory that led to the capture of Mariupol.
Analysts, however, saw the urgent withdrawal from Ukraine, with an unspecified number of dead, artillery fire and destroyed armor, as a factor that ultimately helped to consolidate their current counterattack in Kharkov and the vanguard in Lugansk. They warned that, at the pace of the invasion, the Russian army would be doomed to exhaustion within weeks or a few months (less than three exactly). Without enough human troops and weapons reserves to sustain the advance. And with a huge backpack on his back. The logical thing in any war strategy: it was destined for a pause to defend what had already been conquered.
Meanwhile, Kiev, which had spent nearly all of its former Soviet Union-inherited arsenal in June, has taken advantage of the summer to regroup and reorder its priorities. And most importantly, rearm with the advanced weapons and intelligence systems sent by the United States and its allies.
Between Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson, Moscow manages 92,000 square kilometers of Ukraine’s territory. The administrative process of its annexation, which is not recognized by the majority of the international community, was concluded yesterday in the Russian parliament. The paradox is that, compared to the original strip in conflict since 2014, the current one is almost four times larger. It goes well beyond the controversial pro-Russian enclaves in Donbas to extend into Crimea. For Moscow, its value is very high: it connects this peninsula, which was annexed nine years ago, to the rest of Russia, giving it control of the Sea of Azov and one of the most important industrial centers in Ukraine. But beyond that, it gives the Russian authorities the ability to control much of the Dnieper and the assurance that Kiev could never maneuver to cause droughts in Crimea. The northern channel connecting this river to the fields of the peninsula was blocked for eight years, until last April.
Military, all this has its price. The invaded territory makes it necessary to defend a thousand kilometers of new frontier. It hinders the Kremlin from sustaining the offensive and creates problems to avoid holes, such as the one this weekend in Liman, the gateway to Lugansk, where the Kiev army has advanced about 20 kilometers according to latest estimates. Some analysts speak of the rubber band theory: the more the front line is stretched, the more it weakens. Now he is waiting for weapons and the gradual mobilization of the 300,000 reservists promised by the Kremlin. However, specialized Russian blogs estimate that protecting such a huge canyon requires at least half a million well-trained and well-equipped soldiers.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian security forces in Liman are collecting the bodies of fighters who died during the siege in black bags. They calculate that, after the Russians retreat by gunfire, there may still be soldiers hidden or disoriented in the fields who will lose their lives if they step on the mines that densely cover the area. Life is fleeting, even after fleeing.
Russian flags have been reduced to ashes in front of official buildings in the city. Maps and strategic documents of the residents have flown out of the Liman City Council, but there are other papers, such as the one in which the neighbors have promised the construction of two urbanizations responsible for the Russian treasury to replace all the houses that have fallen to the ground. have been made equal. The inhabitants have lost a promise, but Moscow is without a logistics center and a first-class artillery emplacement to protect Luhansk.
Does this turn imply the expectation of a final defeat of the invaders? No one knows, but after analysts’ forecasts and US caution, it’s still a chimera. While these changes in territorial control are important for establishing strong positions and maintaining high troop morale, they are still very small compared to the area of total exclusion and are at risk of counter-attacks. In reality, the balance of power between the two armies is more important, the strategists say. If the capacities of both are equal, there is a pause between now and the end of the year to consolidate and rearm, especially when Putin and Zelensky have ensured that the road to a diplomatic path is closed; the first with the annexation decree and the second with the order ratified yesterday not to sit at a negotiating table.
On the battlefield, Russia is known to lose a large number of soldiers, but nothing is known about the actual casualties among the Ukrainian armed forces, as the government does not inform or allow its distribution, nor does foreign intelligence. are interested in damaging the image of their military’s elusiveness.
What does seem clearer is that weapons, training and intelligence capabilities weigh heavily in Ukraine’s favour, especially after the continued rearmament guarantees obtained from the United States. Kiev and Moscow flirt with collapse. They fire such a large number of rockets and artillery shells that it is impossible to last long term without outside help. Nothing is written. Not even if Putin will use a low-intensity nuclear weapon. Winter is coming. And if the current rewrite of the balances is maintained, there are soldiers who will venture into the return of the war in defense of Donbas and Crimea by Russia in early 2023. Like before the invasion. But with hundreds of thousands of lives destroyed.
Source: La Verdad
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