Experts believe that in next Tuesday’s US elections, the female vote will carry a decisive weight, both because of the number of candidates appearing and the anger that has arisen after the annulment of the right to abortion.
In this pivotal US election on November 8, when everything is at stake, fraught with urgency and feeling, several electorate groups appear with particular intensity for the epic task of straightening out the democratic state. Anchored in their positions, the Democratic candidates face Republican extremists in key swing states, where women, youth, Latinos and undecided will be decisive in both breaking the tie and consolidating the victories.
There has been much debate as to whether this will be the election year in which the women’s vote will have a historic impact. Following the Supreme Court’s annulment of the right to abortion in June, this group has mobilized to make their voices heard in the polls, motivating many analysts to call 2022 “the year of women’s fury.”
Nearly four decades ago, Anita Hill’s testimony about the sexual harassment of Judge Clarence Thomas during the magistrate’s ratification sessions generated such a record for female candidates in the next election to public office that 1992 was described as “the year of the woman.” ». The avalanche of candidates now includes 21 women for the Senate, 263 for the House of Representatives and 69 for the governor. American women also led the registry of voters who voted in advance, percentages already at least 10 percentage points higher this summer than men in nine states.
While the forecasts cannot determine whether there will be a Democratic blue wave or a Republican red wave, it does seem clear that there will be a major mobilization of Generation Z. A recent poll by the Harvard Institute of Politics reveals that 40% of young people aged 18 to 29 will vote “absolutely” in the election, and 16% think they will go to the polls, although they don’t say so. A significant voting bloc that, according to research director John Della Volpe, “demands to be heard” and whose percentage is rising in states with competitive elections. More than half (57%) support Democrats, with special emphasis among women in their thirties, showing the impact among young people of the Supreme Court’s decision to cancel abortion. In key areas such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, the mix of millennials and “gen-Z” leans democratically at a ratio of 2 to 3.
Generation Z’s vote in 2018 was enough to convert 10 seats in the House of Congress from Republican to Democrat in previous elections. And a good portion of the young vote brought Biden to the presidency in 2020.
According to polls, 11% of national voters still don’t know which party they will support for Congress. The data is not favorable for Democrats: undecided overwhelmingly (83%) believe the country is on the wrong track and disapprove of Joe Biden’s job as president (62%). 25% of this group declares to have “no enthusiasm at all” and probably many will stay at home without voting. There are many uncertainties in some key demographics: almost a quarter of young people born in 1997 or later have not even decided whether to go to the polls. And Hispanic (22%) and black (15%) voters are more likely to be undecided than white voters (10%).
The battle for control of the Senate and House of Representatives is especially crucial for Democrats, whose hungry majorities depend on the legislative viability of President Biden’s agenda. Democrats control the Senate for 50 percent, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker. To win a majority, Republicans only need one seat.
In Arizona, a state that used to be a Republican stronghold, gubernatorial race Democrat Katie Hobbs, the current Secretary of State, is taking on extremist denier Kari Lake, a former Fox news anchor and Trump ally. Lake, who has appeared alongside sinister figures linked to QAnon during his campaign, has already stated he will not recognize the election results if he loses, has also failed to clarify his stances on abortion and is currently leading the polls by five points.
Another defining state where the female voice will be very important is Pennsylvania. The election for governor faces Republican extremist Doug Mastriano and Democrat Josh Shapiro, state attorney general since 2017, who leads the polls by more than 10 points. Mastriano, a retired army colonel and far-right senator, was at the rally ahead of the Capitol attack and recently called for the death penalty for women undergoing abortions.
In Georgia, the gubernatorial election will be a second edition of the 2018 showdown between former minority leader Stacey Abrams (Democrat) and current governor Brian Kemp (Republican). Abrams aspires to become the first black female governor in American history, though she has failed to bridge the gap between her and her opponent.
Source: La Verdad
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