With very low expectations, the presidents of the United States and China meet tomorrow, facing Taiwan, the war in Ukraine and their ideological differences
If there’s a place that can calm troubled international waters, it’s undoubtedly Bali. This paradise-like Indonesian island, with white sandy beaches lined with coconut palms and turquoise waters, will play host to what is possibly the G20’s most tense summit tomorrow Tuesday and Wednesday. A forum that sits at the same table of the most industrial and prosperous countries of the West, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany or France, and the most important developing countries, such as China, India, Brazil or Russia.
With the most diverse opinions and political systems, major themes such as the war in Ukraine, inflation, the looming energy crisis, the threat of a recession, global warming and the growing global polarization surrounding the new ‘Cold War’ between the US and China. To ease tension between the two countries, which have become openly economically and politically hostile, their presidents, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, are taking advantage of their presence in Bali to meet tomorrow before the G20 summit begins.
Although they have spoken several times by video conference, this is their first face-to-face meeting since Biden arrived at the White House in January 2020 and three weeks after Xi remained in power at the Communist Party’s 20th Congress. While being portrayed as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao, as he demonstrated by ousting former President Hu Jintao from Congress, Biden is bolstered by better-than-expected Democratic results in the recent midterm elections. Apart from this agreement, the differences between the two are so numerous, and so great, that no agreement is expected and it is even possible that they will not even sign a joint statement. But just the fact that they sit down to talk face-to-face is progress and will at least help them agree on what they stand for.
Or, as Biden said last week, “to point out what our red lines are.” Before leaving for the climate summits in Egypt and the Southeast Asian (Asean) countries in Cambodia, he explained that what he wants to do when he talks to Xi is to “understand what he believes is in China’s critical national interest and give him tell what I think is in the critical national interest of the United States, and determine whether or not they conflict, and if they do, how to fix it and make it work.
Their biggest clash is Taiwan, the “de facto” independent and democratic island claimed by Beijing that Xi Jinping has vowed to reunite, by force if necessary. It is such an important issue for China that it conducted its largest military maneuvers in the Strait of Formosa last summer in retaliation for the visit of Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi. Faced with the threat of a hypothetical Chinese invasion, Biden has angered Beijing several times by promising the White House would help Taiwan militarily. A statement his advisers have been forced to qualify by ensuring that Washington has not changed its “strategic ambiguity” about Taiwan or its recognition of the “one China” policy, but strongly insisted on and opposed the current “status quo” against Let Beijing take the island.
Adding to this military tension is the recent National Security Strategy published by the US, which identifies China as its “biggest geopolitical challenge” and a more dangerous threat than Russia, despite the war in Ukraine. To contain Beijing’s military and technological rise, Biden has also banned the sale of the most advanced microchips, which are manufactured precisely in Taiwan, to Chinese companies. This veto, which could delay China’s technological development for up to a decade, enrages the regime, as its foreign spokesman, Zhao Lijian, made clear in one of his latest press conferences: “The US must stop politicizing, ideologizing and weaponizing trade issues .” and take real action to defend the market economy and international trading system.”
But, as Chris Hung, vice president of the Taiwanese consulting firm MIC (Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute) explains to this paper, “the new regulations from the US government are trying to delay the development of China’s semiconductor industry for five to ten years. Since such bans apply to very advanced technology or technology with military applications, the impact on other countries will be fairly limited.’
Given the discomfort this veto has caused China, which has dealt a “very precise and forceful” blow to its plan to achieve its technological independence, the US president is confident that he will not have to make “fundamental concessions,” Hung said. to do”. at his meeting with Xi. At the same time, it will try to provide security guarantees to Taiwan, something Chinese Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian strongly opposed.
Added to all these military tensions are their differences over the war in Ukraine and Xi Jinping’s implicit support for Putin, with whom he struck up an “unlimited friendship” just before the Russian invasion, which Chinese propaganda refuses to describe as such. Biden will try to force a commitment from Xi to oppose Moscow’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did earlier this month during his criticized whirlwind visit to Beijing.
Things will get harder for Biden if Xi condemns the continued provocations of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, who is feared to conduct another nuclear test after firing all kinds of missiles for a year.
Although expectations of agreements are very low, it is expected that the meeting will at least serve to resume talks between the two countries on global warming, military communications and the trade war. All of these partnerships, vital to the development of the economy and the future of humanity, were interrupted after Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, and analysts trust the Bali summit will help unlock some of them.
In 2019, when the G20 was held in the Japanese city of Osaka, the opportunity was taken to meet former US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who signed a trade war ceasefire. While Biden has not lifted tariffs imposed by Trump, he will try to take advantage of his long relationship with Xi to bring positions closer and build bridges. The two have known each other personally since 2011, when they were both vice presidents and made several mutual visits, but times have changed as much as they have.
In fact, Biden even had to clarify in a press conference that he is not an “old friend” of Xi, but that the two had a “pure work” relationship. Oddly enough, during his time as a senator in the late 1990s, the now president of the United States was one of the strongest defenders of China’s inclusion in the World Trade Organization (WTO), which has caused so many problems for certain Western industries.
For his part, the Chinese president has lost the smile he wore on his travels to the US, like the one he made in 2012 when he answered Biden’s visit, and has become the most authoritarian leader since Mao Zedong. Traumatized by the disintegration of the Soviet Union, which he wants to avoid at all costs in China, Xi Jinping sees himself as the savior of communism and defends its totalitarian model against the democracies of the West. Xi returns to the international scene after nearly three years without leaving China due to the Covid-19 pandemic and meets with Biden to try and improve their relations in Bali. If there is a place conducive to calming the lofty spirits of the world, it is undoubtedly this beautiful and peaceful island of Indonesia.
Smiles on every face, which also shine without blushing because few people wear a mask against the covid, dream beaches, luxurious tourist complexes, tropical heat and beautiful Balinese welcome dances. As Indonesian diplomatic sources privately acknowledge, the island of Bali brings all its charms to create the right atmosphere for G20 members to make important global agreements.
Besides industrialized countries like USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Australia and Spain as regular guests, emerging powers like China, India, Russia, Brazil are part of this forum., Mexico, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, plus the European Union.
Held in the beautiful area of Nusa Dua, where Bali’s best hotels are concentrated, the G20 is held under tight security measures to prevent jihadist attacks, such as the one that killed 202 people in Kuta bars 20 years ago.
Source: La Verdad
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