Ukraine historian: – ‘Putin shows every day that he wants to destroy’

crown.at: The Russian offensive war against Ukraine has lasted more than 300 days – much longer than Putin had hoped. How do you see the current situation?
Andriy Kudryatchenko: Russia is now acting with such brutality because Putin is angry at his losses. They hoped, just like in 2014, to push the “Russki Mir”, the Russian worldview, in the major Russian-speaking cities. It was even funny: the Russian side paid nearly five billion dollars for propaganda and collaborators to prepare for their aggression. Pro-Russian Ukrainians claimed that there were 2,000 young strong people supporting Russian forces in almost every major city. Moscow itself believed in this propaganda (laughs). But that was not even the case in the Russian-speaking city of Kharkiv, 50 kilometers from the border. You don’t change that overnight.

In Chechnya, Syria and Georgia, Putin’s policy of military destruction has generally won. But in our case it is very different. This war changed the situation of Ukraine and Europe. Crucially, the Russian campaign crossed the border. There was no longer fighting only in the eastern territories, where you can argue who started. One of the reasons for Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was the success of the Russian operation in Kazakhstan a year ago. There the president was on his side and there were no armed opponents, they could just load soldiers on planes and send them there. At the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the Russians also tried to land at Ukrainian airports, but our troops shot down the planes and helicopters.

Her institute makes analyzes for government agencies and, if necessary, advises the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. You say that there are different opinions about the borders in the east. What prospects do you see for negotiations with Russia? Zelensky himself says that he wants to retake Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk.
I can say it as a proverb: appetite comes with food. Our battalions want to recapture more territories. With the help of the US, the EU and the UK, it is possible to regain even the state borders previously recognized by the world community. The Russian Duma declared the regions of Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia to be Russian territory. Moscow never wants to give up these regions, but the Kherson region was recaptured by Ukrainian troops (laughs). People there reject the Russki Mir. But in Crimea the situation is different. Whether the referendum was voluntary at the time is debatable, but at least many people there have a pro-Russian line.

What prospects are there for the people there?
It is heavy. For example, we have a law against collaborators, and if Ukrainian troops conquer another territory tomorrow, people may blame their neighbors.

So negotiate with Russia and give up Crimea? Others believe that one should hope for a military victory for Ukraine.
There are two or more opinions on any question, and this one in particular. A large part of the Russian population supports the dictator and his ruthless war. Every day children, women, old people are killed, residential buildings are destroyed. That’s why many people think we should win. But even if Ukrainian troops drive the Russians out of the country, Russia could regroup and start another war. According to Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valeryi Zalushnyi, there is a risk that the reserves will be withdrawn. We are talking about millions of men here.

Russia was able to field new soldiers due to battlefield setbacks.
I think Putin understands that things are not going so well anymore. He has canceled his traditional press conference and an appearance in the State Duma. This means that his position is no longer undisputed. At the press conference, journalists could have asked uncomfortable questions, such as how long this “special operation” would last. Or: “What is this operation anyway?” Of course, peace negotiations would be better, but for that we would need a different regime in Moscow. If the Russian regime collapses, it would also be dangerous for neighboring countries. Because the Russian nuclear weapons are still there, and the nuclear danger is greater if Russia breaks up into several smaller states. It’s hard to say which is better. Macron said Moscow’s interests should also be taken into account. I think Putin is looking for a suitable variant for himself. Otherwise, he could be like Ceausescu 33 years ago: when he lost support from Moscow, his regime collapsed and he was executed.

How do you see the position of French President Emmanuel Macron?
We don’t know exactly what strategy Paris has. Selenskyj and Macron are one generation, they got along better in the beginning. But as we see it now, Macron has his own interests. I think he’s doing major geopolitical politics right now. There are also historical reasons for this: during the Second World War, the Soviet Union managed to ensure that France was also regarded as a victorious state. In any case, Paris plays a very important role. Unlike Germany, France is a nuclear state and a member of the UN Security Council.

But Germany also plays an important role in the conflict…
Angela Merkel had great influence on Putin. I was amazed that she said in a recent interview that she wanted to give Ukraine time with the Minsk Agreement, in which she formulated almost every sentence herself. Merkel was as stupid as a fish for a year, now she can explain her position as former chancellor. She said there might not have been a war if she were still chancellor. In 2018, Berlin’s position was that referenda should be held in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where the so-called separatists rule. Germany insisted and had shown Saar areas from 1955 and GDR 1990 as examples. We rejected that. If you compare that with Merkel’s statements now, it sounds very different. This annoys dictator Putin.

You speak of so-called separatists. Do some pro-Russian troops actually want to secede from Ukraine?
In the Soviet Union, military veterans preferred to retire in Ukraine, especially in Crimea. Perhaps that is why many there welcomed Russia’s actions. In general, there are many Russian-speaking Ukrainians who identify with Russian culture. Everything has changed since the Russian invasion. No one can think pro-Russian now. Putin shows his cruelty to everyone: pro-Russian, anti-Russian people, it doesn’t matter. He wants to destroy. He shows that every day. Most people who had close ties to Russia now think differently. Zelenskyy and his government show what the task of each state is. He defends every human in his territory. That is significant. Even people of the Soviet generation say: “Why is Putin sending missiles? It is possible to decide this issue without war.” But Putin is a murderer!

Did the invasion of Russia raise national consciousness?
As a historian, I have to say this: this war against the Ukrainian people is not the first. There was military resistance during the Cossack era and Moscow’s brutal war against the Ukrainian People’s Republic after World War I. In the Soviet Union, the Kremlin wiped out more than four million Ukrainians with its inhumane famine policies. But there were also great joint efforts of the Ukrainian and Russian peoples and the other peoples of the former USSR: the war against the Nazis and the times of reconstruction. After World War I, Western countries did not support an independent Ukraine. There were also serious internal disputes. It’s a pity we didn’t take the chance then. Now there is international support, agreements and the Ramstein platform for military aid and reconstruction after the war. I would like to emphasize that the Ukrainian identity has been engraved over the centuries. Nearly 350 years of living together in the Tsarist Empire and under Soviet rule did not destroy everything.

Are you optimistic about the future?
I think at least Ukraine will win. Naturally, the question arises of what territory and with what population. Just before the war there were 40 million inhabitants. In total, about ten million have fled. There are currently almost 100,000 refugees in Austria alone. We lose a lot of people, generations. How is our country, our economy doing? Austria also had a difficult history after the First World War. In the Second Republic, people used their own experiences to peacefully create perspective. The peaceful way is the better. Good prospects arise in cooperation with the EU countries, especially with Austria, the only state in the democratic west that has a common history with the western Ukrainian territory. We are not only connected by the past, but also by cooperation in various fields in the present, such as the Vienna – Graz – Kiev scientific bridge.

There are many Ukrainians who speak Russian and there are reports that the Russian language is being suppressed. Are there such tendencies?
These tendencies existed after the 2013/2014 revolution. A language law was passed at the first session of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament, note) after the overthrow of President Yanukovych. Russian was not banned, but the Ukrainian language was preferred. In recent years, campaigns have been launched in Moscow to ban Ukrainian centers and libraries. After the war, that must and will change, here too. There are more than 130 ethnic groups in Ukraine, each of them has the right to speak their language and experience the culture. In EU countries there are also rights for minorities. We need such laws and must implement them.