Something is happening at the front: In recent days, the Russian military has made it increasingly clear that the long-awaited “spring offensive” around the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine is imminent. Armed Forces Colonel Markus Reisner explains how this can be seen in the “Krone” interview.
“I think the Russian offensive has already started. However, it is still somewhat hidden,” Reisner said in a current analysis. Russia is in a “shaping” phase, in which the battlefield is “shaped” in favor of the attackers before the actual offensive sets in. Reisner lists the following as indications of this:
- Russia is currently conducting numerous company-level probe attacks along the front lines to identify potential weaknesses in Ukraine’s defenses
- This would be particularly evident in the areas of Kreminna, Siversk, Bakhmut, Marinka, Pisky and Ugledar
- At the same time, the Russians are bringing a large amount of supplies and technical equipment close to the front, an important indication of an approaching offensive
- If the “shaping” phase is successful for the Russians, Reisner says we could very soon see the start of the actual major offensive. If not, Russia would continue the current “war of attrition” without major territorial gains.
Minefields take their toll
In their preparations, the invaders are currently struggling with the huge Ukrainian minefields. At the moment, drone images are released almost daily showing that many Russian victims are being killed by mines (see video below). According to Reisner, there is a shortage of suitable clearance equipment on the Russian side.
The type of terrain in the disputed areas was also unfavorable to the attackers: it was very rural, with extensive fields bordered by hedges and wooded areas.
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Time slot limited due to thaw
However, according to the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), Russian military bloggers see the time window for a successful offensive as limited. The Russian military leadership wants to intervene before Western military aid arrives in Ukraine. In addition, the spring thaw creates muddy ground, hampering rapid offensive movement, the Washington-based think tank wrote in its latest report.
As usual, British intelligence is optimistic: it does not expect any imminent Russian breakthrough, as it believes that the Russian army does not have enough troops to decisively influence the war within weeks. The attackers also lack sufficient ammunition.
Source: Krone
I am Wallace Jones, an experienced journalist. I specialize in writing for the world section of Today Times Live. With over a decade of experience, I have developed an eye for detail when it comes to reporting on local and global stories. My passion lies in uncovering the truth through my investigative skills and creating thought-provoking content that resonates with readers worldwide.
