In the Shadow of War – Clear election victory for Estonia’s ruling party

Kallas has been head of government since 2021 – the first woman in Estonia’s history – and is considered one of the most staunch supporters of Ukraine in Europe. The victory of her party in the Baltic state with about 1.2 million inhabitants had already become clear before the elections on Sunday. The 45-year-old should now be able to continue to govern in the tripartite coalition with the Social Democrats and the Conservative Party. Both parties lost seats in parliament, but the government still has a majority.

Kallas left open Sunday night whether she would continue the alliance. “Voters expect the Reform Party to take the lead in the new government. That much is certain,” Kallas said on election night. With more than 31,000 votes in her constituency, she set a record – more than anyone since Estonia’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Kallas stressed that Estonia is facing major reforms, including environmental restructuring. But the country must also invest in its security. “Our aggressive neighbor has not disappeared and will not disappear. So we have to deal with it,” she said, referring to Russia. All other parties “with the exception of Ekre and perhaps the center” would have taken the same line with regard to Ukraine. “I therefore think we can find common ground here,” Kallas added, with a view to the upcoming coalition negotiations.

Two opposition parties came second and third: the right-wing populist party Ekre (17 seats) and the left-wing Center Party (16 seats), both of which lost a few seats. The Estonia 200 liberal party (14 seats) was the largest winner of the vote in parliament for the first time. Experts consider participation in the government even conceivable.

Right-wing populists speak of ‘stolen’ elections
Ekre boss Mart Helme responded to the results with accusations of fraud. The election victory was “stolen” from his party. His party was ahead when the paper ballots were counted, but the result was reversed when the electronic votes were counted. More than 47 percent of voters cast their vote by post or online in this election. In total, more than half of all votes were cast digitally – a record. According to preliminary information from the Electoral Commission, the voter turnout was 63.7 percent.

This time, more than a third of all eligible voters – including Head of State Alar Karis – used “e-voting”, which Estonia was the first EU country to introduce. The Estonian president now has 14 days to nominate a candidate for the position of prime minister. He then has 14 days to appear before parliament with a newly formed government for a vote of confidence.

Russian war of aggression dominant theme
One of the main themes of the election campaign was Russia’s war against Ukraine, which Estonia sees as a direct threat to national security. The country shares a border of almost 300 kilometers with Russia. Since about a quarter of the inhabitants are of Russian descent, the war led to sensitive social debates – for example about Russian lessons at school and how to deal with one’s own history and memory culture.

Since the Russian invasion, Kallas has been a staunch supporter of EU sanctions against Moscow and arms sales to Ukraine. Under her leadership, Estonia has given more than one percent of its economic output to Ukraine as military aid and has taken in more than 60,000 war refugees. It also resolutely calls for the reinforcement of NATO’s eastern flank.