Top Secret Papers – US data breach: five things you need to know

The US is experiencing the biggest data breach in years. Top secret US documents have been shared on social platforms such as Discord, Twitter and Telegram. Five issues are particularly relevant:

1. The documents are authentic
The secret documents seem authentic, American media report. Although some documents were manipulated, these changes were apparently not made until later. US authorities have admitted to the New York Times that many of the documents are genuine and were originally posted online without any modifications.

Ukraine officially speaks of “counterfeits”, but the leak has “adjusted some military plans”, a source close to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told US broadcaster CNN.

The evidence that this is a leak and not a hack seems strong. The material also appears on pro-Russian forums, but what circulates there are photos of printed Pentagon briefing reports. That speaks for a mole from the American ranks.

2. The US is careless with classified information
Many of the documents appear to have been prepared for General Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Chiefs of Staff, and other senior military officials. So normal so far. But the number of people who still have access to the highest level of security information is staggering.

According to the latest figures released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, in 2019 there were 1.25 million people in the US government with permission and access to read top secret materials. Since then, there has been no evidence that these permissions have declined drastically. But that does not mean that more than a million people could read the published documents. Each authority has its own system here. In the current case, however, experts assume that hundreds of people had access.

The Pentagon has already announced a review of its access policy. “We take this very, very seriously,” National Security Council communications director John Kirby said in Washington Monday.

With such large numbers, it is very likely that top secret material will eventually fall into the hands of someone willing to share it. For any reason.

3. US doubts success of Ukrainian spring offensive
The documents show that the US government is concerned about the state of war. According to the released documents, Ukraine could “far miss” the original plans to recapture occupied territories.

The reason for this is the difficulty of increasing troops, ammunition and equipment, writes the Washington Post.

The newspapers consider it likely that the Ukrainian counter-offensive can yield only “modest territorial gains”. Kiev’s strategy is to recapture disputed territories in the east while advancing south to cut off Russia’s land bridge to the occupied Crimean peninsula.

There must be great rejoicing in the Kremlin, as the data breach naturally carries strategic benefits. Those who know in advance how and where attacks should take place can better defend themselves.

4. The US has largely infiltrated Russian intelligence services
However, Russian officials may be less than happy with what an open book they are to the US. The leaked Pentagon documents reveal just how deep the US has intruded into Russian security and intelligence. They demonstrate Washington’s ability to warn Ukraine of planned attacks and provide an assessment of the strength of Moscow’s war machine. This information allowed the United States to provide Ukraine with important advice on self-defense.

If Russia finds out how the US collects its intelligence and disrupts that information flow, it could have consequences for the battlefield in Ukraine. According to the New York Times, a document estimates that Russia suffered 189,500 to 223,000 human casualties by February, including up to 43,000 deaths. Ukraine suffered 124,500-131,000 casualties, of which up to 17,500 died in combat.

5. The US is spying on allies
When it comes to espionage, the United States makes no distinction between friend and foe. What has been suspected over and over again is reported in today’s newspapers: the US spies on its allies. In addition to Russia and Ukraine, countries such as Canada, South Korea, Israel and Turkey are also mentioned.

This can have fatal consequences for informants. US allies are now trying to determine whether their own resources and methods have been compromised by the leak. And if so, diplomatic relations could be seriously damaged. Anyway, the US will have to declare itself.