Consequences for humanity – researchers: states’ climate plans ‘little credible’


If you look at current developments in greenhouse gas emissions, the world will reach an average temperature of 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius in 2100. However, if states’ commitments to climate neutrality are rigorously adhered to, a stabilization between plus 1.5 and two degrees could succeed. However, researchers now complain that some 90 percent of reduction announcements are not credible.

The differences between the effects of temperature increases towards three degrees and below two degrees plus compared to pre-industrial levels could hardly be greater, writes the team led by first author Joeri Rogelj of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. (IIASA). ) in Laxenburg near Vienna in his article in the journal “Science”.

‘Further development of humanity clearly in danger’
In the first case one is dealing with increases that clearly jeopardize the further development of humanity, in the second case the effects are potentially manageable.

Political criticism
Here we are dealing with two different ‘worlds’ on which the course is now being set. That should be clear to politicians and the population, the researchers write. Everything depends on the implementation of the often ambitious plans of many countries, as experts emphasize time and time again. However, the credibility of the political announcements has not yet been factored into the scenario calculations.

Calling in the EU
Rogelj’s team is now catching up on this in current work: The researchers assessed whether states already have legally binding reduction targets, whether they are already supported by credible political plans for implementation, and whether a country’s short-term political measures are already noticeable. are. scientists write. This applies, for example, to the EU with its legal basis for reduction, its ‘credible implementation plan’ and the forecast of lower CO2 emissions in 2030 compared to 2020.

Researchers: temperature plus around the year 2100 around 2.4 degrees
Although it is known that there are many question marks behind the EU plans, the commitments of about 90 percent of the countries are even less credible. In the scenario in which the scientists assume that only countries with the most reliable plans and targets will implement them, the calculations show that in the year 2100 there will probably still be a temperature plus 2.4 degrees Celsius worldwide. The rise would continue after that. Under these assumptions, the climate targets would be missed by a wide margin.

On the other hand, if all – including the many implausible – reduction targets are actually achieved, it may be expected that the plus will not exceed 1.7 degrees in the 21st century and will not increase further after 2100. In any case, it is clear that under the current circumstances, with often very vague implementation plans, it is only “credible that you are not on the right track”, according to the researchers.

Accordingly, the group emphasizes the importance of commitments that are politically binding and accompanied by concrete short- and long-term implementation plans that can be rolled out quickly. If this does not succeed at national and regional level, the risks of significantly exceeding the climate targets will remain very high.

Source: Krone


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