The steps taken in recent days cast doubt on the future of the Good Friday Agreement institutions
The union revolt against border controls between Britain and Northern Ireland after ‘Brexit’ and other aspects of the ‘Brexit’ protocol has accelerated after last week’s regional elections. It could cause the collapse of the institutions created in the Good Friday Agreement and break the trade deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom.
Before the election, observers of Northern Ireland’s politics have considered the possibility that the protocol crisis will destroy the system of governance designed in 1998. The most optimistic predicted that the resolution would require at least a second vote. What has happened in recent hours justifies the pessimistic forecast.
On Tuesday evening, hours after the government announced a legislative program containing only a law on Northern Ireland based on an agreement between the parties ten years ago, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss released a statement in the statement rejecting proposals that presented the Commission in October confirming that it is ready to “take action to stabilize Northern Ireland”.
The minister provides a list of examples of the bureaucratic procedures that the EU needs to prevent the region from becoming a port of entry and exit for illegal goods in the EU. Her interlocutor, Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic, told the British government that it is not offering “creative” reforms and has again closed the possibility of negotiating the treaty.
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Jeffrey Donaldson has said after speaking with Prime Minister Boris Johnson that “we have finally reached the time to prepare to take action”. He will keep his seat in Westminster “until there is a solution to protocol”, rather than taking the post of deputy prime minister in Belfast which theoretically belongs to him.
It doesn’t go back but raises the stakes. MPs from the largest trade union party will gather on Friday in Stormont, the landmark building in east Belfast that houses the Assembly and regional government offices. Donaldson will decide with them whether to nominate the ministers of the joint Executive. If they don’t, the autonomy activity is further weakened.
It is not the first time that the system has collapsed due to the withdrawal of one of the two parties that necessarily share the lead. Sinn Féin brought it to a halt from 2017 to 2020 with the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Martin McGuinness. To avoid this vacuum, London’s parliament passed a law in February that would allow the Assembly and ministers to remain active in these cases, with limited powers.
The restoration of autonomy now depends on the DUP. Their election manifesto stated that they would judge any protocol reform against these principles: that trade would not shift to other markets, that there would be no border in the Irish Sea, that it would give a voice to the people of Northern Ireland in the laws that govern them, that there is no control of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, that there are no new barriers if they are not approved by the General Assembly and the Executive.
It is inconceivable that the European Commission will delete at least five articles from the Protocol, which regulate the movement of goods and the governance of the common market, in order to appease London or the trade unionists. However, Boris Johnson’s government, which is distrusted by 84% of the Northern Irish population according to a recent poll, seems willing to start proceedings in the coming days for a protracted confrontation with the EU without a conceivable pact.
Source: La Verdad
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