“If the war ends, the EU should not rush millions of people back to Ukraine.”

According to the UN, Europe is still at the center of the refugee crisis as more than four million people have fled Ukraine. Anna Triandafilidu, a migration expert and professor at Ryerson University in Canada, told todaytimeslive.com that she hopes that this time Europe has learned from its mistakes and that after the end of the war, the countries that are now opening their hands to the Ukrainians will not force them to return. In a ruined country where their communities are no more, but also offer them alternatives.

According to the UN, it already exists More than four million Ukrainian refugees. What can we expect in the coming weeks and months?

In terms of the state of emergency, everything will depend on whether there will be a ceasefire and when it will happen. When we talk about refugees, we always believe that this will be a temporary situation. Refugees usually go to a neighboring country because they hope the conflict will only last a few weeks and then they can return home. This is what we have seen, for example, in Syria. Everything changed when people realized that the situation had escalated into a protracted conflict and that staying next door was not the solution.

Another thing to remember is a lesson we can learn from what happened in Bosnia and the former Yugoslavia: Where are they going back? What is left of your original community? And this is not only on a material level, in Ukraine we see large-scale destruction in many areas, not everywhere, fortunately, because the war has not reached the whole country. Because there is another problem, when they return their community will be there again as other people have left.

For example, a friend raises an elderly couple in Florence, Italy, at the initiative of the European University Institute. And the people before he arrived asked, “Would you like to receive us, even if we are from Donbass?” It was heartbreaking. Of course my friend said yes. But this region is really devastated because no one will be able to live in unity and peace.

As far as we know, the most affected country is Poland. And in this country it was more ordinary people and civil society than the state itself reacted to.

Will Poland be a transit country for Ukrainians or will they settle there? Is Poland experiencing a refugee crisis like the one in Greece because of the war in Syria?

We saw different waves moving in the direction of Poland. At first they were people who had relatives and friends in Poland who inevitably thought, “My friends and relatives will be able to bring me in until this nightmare is over.” And I honestly think most people thought it would be a short period. But as the situation has worsened, we are seeing a more diverse group fleeing bombs in the affected areas that have been evacuated.

Many go to Italy, where there is a large Ukrainian population, mostly made up of labor migrants, and in many cases even transnational families, where, for example, a young grandmother or mother works as a housekeeper or caregiver in Italy. The rest of the family was in Ukraine. The women of the family went to Italy because, as we know, men had to fight in Ukraine.

We have also seen that in Moldova, which is a really small country hidden between Romania and Ukraine, there are more than 100,000 refugees, which is huge for Moldova, probably for more countries than for more than two million refugees in Poland. I think the idea is that these people are in transit to another country.

Is the EU ready to accept this wave of refugees?

We thought the problem globally would be a pandemic and now for Europe and at some point for North America, it becomes a new state of emergency. I believe that the EU can solve this problem. We must not forget that the EU unites 500 million people. The initial motive is to escape the bombs, but the decision to flee is influenced by many other factors, such as the humanitarian but also the future of the fugitive and their family.

The strength and will of the EU should not be underestimated. We are seeing significant steps in the right direction and will need public investment. And I think the pandemic has shown us how important public health systems are. At a time when many people were wondering how expensive public systems were and wondered if hybrid systems would not be more efficient, suddenly [con la pandemia] Everyone realized that we had to maintain a health care system. Similarly, I believe that the invasion of Ukraine and the increase in refugees indicate that the power of this decision should not remain in the markets, but rather in states and civil society.

We see that only women and children can leave the country. What effect will this have?

this is very interesting. What is special here is that we have separate families. The men remain in battle and are forced to stay. So this is a different situation in terms of how families make decisions: Will the father and husband join the rest of the family in another country if the family returns? It is undoubtedly different from what we have seen before. For example, in the first six months of 2015-16, we saw that the refugees were mostly men and boys. These percentages changed over time as more families appeared with grandparents, so three generations went together.

I do not understand how this is happening in Ukraine. Of course, we have seen older people run away too. We do not have a crystal ball, but I think what we have to admit is that we have to give humans a creature. They are not just victims. They are the agents of their own lives and they need to make decisions and they will make those decisions because everything will evolve with everything in mind. And I think it is important to predict human, practical and real solutions.

Also, if there is a ceasefire, some may say, “You have to go back now.” We saw it in Bosnia and Kosovo, I remember when the war in Yugoslavia ended, I lived in Brussels. The city had a large refugee population and people were repatriated not only from Belgium but also from Germany, Austria and elsewhere. They were almost forced to return to where there was nothing to return, both materially and socially. These are lessons to be learned.

What can we expect from this wave of refugees?

To be honest, I’m nervous that this might be repeated to say, ‘The war is over, everyone has to come back.’ The EU can congratulate itself on all the measures it has taken so far. But you should not take hasty action and get everyone back.

Another thing we have learned from the past is that when the return is not sustainable, it works for no one. It does not work for the country of origin, it does not work for the people who left or the country of destination and it can be a very bad solution. Therefore, the return must be sustainable, prepared and the refugees must be given a choice.

Why is the EU now accepting these refugees with open arms, as it did not accept Syrians or other refugees?

There is, of course, a different kind of solidarity with Ukraine. Now emotionally Ukraine is perceived as part of Europe. There is no sea in the middle and the route is safer. But there is also the feeling that this is something that directly relates to Europe and to neighboring countries that were also communist, it is a kind of awakening. The feeling “this is our war” arises. In the case of Syria, it was something that was happening in a different place, nearby, but in a different place.

Unfortunately, and while I would like to acknowledge the tremendous efforts made by many Polish people and many NGOs on the ground, there are also ultra-right groups that are already mobilized in Poland. For example, they complain that refugees do not have to pay on a bus or train.

We discussed with my colleagues the notion that Syrians or Afghans are from other places but not Ukrainians who are white and Christian. I think this view is also in the minds of governments and in the minds of some people. In the case of Canada, for example, it was decided to help only Afghans working in Canada. And now there is a message from Canada: “Ukrainians are coming, we will create a special visa.”

I do not think people will learn what happened in 2015 and 2016, unfortunately, because it is welcome [hacia los refugiados sirios] It changed quickly. Especially in places like Germany.

Some of the things we learned from the Syrian refugee crisis in Europe were investing in secondary and higher education to help with the transition. This attempt was particularly prominent in Germany, where they realized a problem that could arise ten years later when people were deprived of education and integration into the labor market. Of course, good lessons have been learned in the long run to give people the education, skills and courses to learn languages. But I’m afraid that in terms of public attitudes in general, we still have a long way to go.