After he officially announced his candidacy, Emmanuel Macron did not stop warning his followers about the risk posed by the lack of mobilization before the election. “The big danger is that people think everything has been decided,” he told his campaign team, gathered at his party headquarters from the Elysee Palace. “If they think so, we have lost,” the French president claimed, adding that he “did not believe in any figure.” A reference to the polls that make him a big favorite: 28.5% of voting intentions in the first round, according to the latest barometer from the Ipsos polling institute, are more than ten points ahead of Marine Le Pen (17.5%).
Especially if candidate Macron warns of possible overconfidence. Trump’s victory and Brexit “yes” are being cited as a warning to party members these days. Also shortly before the presidential election polls against favorites Edouard Balladour, François Fillon or Alain Juppe, who sank at the last minute. “In the past we have seen many who were going to be big winners of the election and who did not make it to the second round,” Macron told lawmakers in La República en Marcha a few days earlier. A very dubious scenario today, especially given that the president’s voter is most confident in his decision. According to a survey by the same Ipsos, 83% of its declared voters say their choice is “defining” and that they are not considering any other alternative.
However, the lack of interest is real (10 points lower than in 2017) and the massive restraint will pose a problem of legitimacy to a government that wants to implement major reforms such as raising the retirement age to 65. “The problem is that when restraint is high, the voice is not an expression of the characteristics of the population; “People who vote are generally older, more educated and more economically viable,” warns Celine Braconier, director and co-author of Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye. Democracy of restraint. “And politicians appeal to those who vote.”
Specifically, opinion polls suggest that this lack of interest could lead to more than 30% abstention, an absolute record for a presidential election. Until now, 2002 – with Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round – was a historic high of 28%. “Projects and proposals are not packed, do not catch, this is A. Tefal campaign– summed up this week Ipsos CEO Brice Tenturier in an interview with public radio France Inter. “We have a feeling that nothing convinces the French that there are no elements strong enough or structured. Neither are the personalities.
The main efforts are focused on young people, who are the segment of the population where the rate of abstinence is highest. Only 16% of 18- to 24-year-olds and 19% of 25- to 34-year-olds voted in the first round of regional elections, 47% of citizens over the age of 65 and 33% of the national average (in elections). Again marked by pandemic). “There is a generational factor, people over the age of 60 continue to go to the polls even when they are skeptical of candidates’ ability to meet their expectations. “They are leaving without duty,” said Celine Braconier. “Young people do not move unless there is an interesting alternative for them.
In this regard, several opinion polls confirm the “impressive political dissipation” of French youth: An analysis by the Montaigne Institute this year showed that 43% of young people (aged 18 to 24) do not position themselves on the left ideological scale – right. However, the data also show that dissipation does not mean depoliticization: According to another paper by the Jean-Jores Foundation, 72% declare themselves politically “involved”. The new generation is very much involved in collective mobilizations about climate emergencies, such as racism, immigration, LGBT issues, feminism, or animal causes. However, the current offer of politicians did not completely deceive them.
Mobilizing this young voice is a crucial element for some of the Elysee candidates. French Insumiza candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon gets the best results in the categories of the population that get the least votes: young people and the lowest incomes. “Its voters are the least mobilized on the left, which shows that it has significant potential reserves of votes,” said political scientist Antoine Bristiel in a Jean-Jores Foundation post. With the elimination of the possibility of a left-wing coalition uniting, Melenchon hopes his good dynamics in recent weeks (he is third with 14.5% of the vote) will be able to convince this potential voter not to stay home on election day. .
In addition, the useful voices of his left-wing rivals (Socialist Ann Hidalgo, environmentalist Yannick Jadot or Communist Fabien Russell, all less than 10% of them) could give him the final impetus to overtake Marine Le Pen. “If you really want to make a barrier [a Le Pen] “In the second round, I have a more interesting proposal: do it from the first and vote for us,” Melenchon told voters from other progressive parties at a rally in Marseilles last week.
On the other hand, if the war in Ukraine changed some of the dynamics of the campaign, its ultimate impact could be on activism, someone suggests. The first weeks of the invasion escalated for the president, who was seen as a guarantor of stability. They also hit candidates with positions closest to Putin, such as Jean-Luc Melenchon, Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemor. The former ultra-right extraterrestrial was most punished, punished for expiring his campaign and taking a stand against the admission of Ukrainian citizens displaced by the war, which was criticized even by his supporters.
However, Marine Le Pen managed to recover and forget about ties with Moscow. Purchasing power is the issue that most concerns French voters, and the importance that the candidate attaches to economic and social issues – without abandoning the traditional discourse on immigration and security – has led to a much stronger candidate than his far-reaching candidate. – The right opponent. Thus, Macron and Le Pen, two 2017 finalists, are favorites to repeat the duel, and although no poll names the winner as president of the National Association, most predict their results will improve over the previous five years (some even disputed elections). Both the press and opinion polls agree that Zemor’s candidacy, on the contrary, was able to soften Le Pen’s image.
Demoscopy experts explain that as turnout in the presidential election reaches normal levels – around 80% – voters will need to realize that something is at stake: either the issue of competition between candidates (in 2017, in the absence of 15 candidates. During the day, four candidates won second). Qualification round) or political debate, structured around clear and distinct guidelines or proposals. No permissions are given at this time. The country’s most-watched channel, TF1, which usually hosts special broadcasts accompanied by elections, has already announced its show for the night of the first round: the 1993 film. The guests were not born yesterday.
Source: El Diario
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
