Why Turkey manages to mediate between Russia and Ukraine

Turkey is the leader in the group of countries competing for the role of mediator in the war between Russia and Ukraine, although for the time being these negotiations have caused more drama than concrete results. While Emmanuel Macron insists on making calls to Vladimir Putin, it is the Turkish Foreign Ministry that has shown the effectiveness of its diplomacy in bringing Russians and Ukrainians closer together.

Turkey is in a peculiar situation: it belongs to NATO and continues to supply arms to Ukraine, but refuses to impose sanctions on Russia. The parties seem to have enough respect for the country that the talks were held there last Tuesday.

The Turks also realize what could be at stake. Ibrahim Kalin, an adviser and spokesman to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, explained in detail during a speech in Doha last week: “As it all ends, a new global security architecture must emerge; How the global security architecture is structured determines the course of events over the coming decades; “Every step we take, every step we take to end this war, will have an impact on the new security architecture.”

In short, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could affect the whole world and not just the fighters.

Turkey’s interests

It would be a mistake to think that Turkey does not have its own point of view on this. “You have to look at what caused this war,” Kalin said. “The power imbalance that has characterized the international order since the end of the Cold War and for the last three decades has a lot to do with the outbreak of this crisis and, finally, the war we are now trying to stop.” .

Kalin said the war was unjustified and unprovoked, but added: “You have to listen to the reasons and complaints, or the security concerns that Russia got into this war, not justify it. We need to talk to Russia. If the whole world cuts ties with Russia, who is going to finally talk to them? In conclusion, Dalin said US hegemony must end.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoლlu said on Saturday that it was in the best interests of the Kiev government to pursue a balanced foreign policy, leading to Ukraine becoming a model that refuses to choose between East and West. Which Turkey was forced to do, he said, because of its geographical position).

The reality is more complex and perhaps more selfish: after a long period of insulting many neighbors in the region, Turkey is changing, perhaps because of its weak economy. In any case, Çavuşo .lu said that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine would require “finding an honorable solution for both sides that can be sold publicly and globally.”

Which was forged in Istanbul

The first meeting organized by Turkey was held in early March during the Antalya Diplomatic Forum. The meeting was attended by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. There was little progress, but Cullen complied with Ukraine’s offer, rejecting NATO membership applications and accepting neutral status in exchange for security guarantees from an unidentified group of countries. Clearly, Lavrov had no instructions to give a serious answer to the proposal.

During talks in Istanbul on Tuesday, which were originally scheduled for two days, Ukraine’s offer became clearer and was submitted in writing. This time the leader of the Ukrainian delegation was Mikhail Podolyak, Advisor to the President of Ukraine. On the Russian side, Presidential Adviser Vladimir Medinsky attended.

Kalin participated in the preparation of the attendee list. The presence of Roman Abramovich in the negotiations speaks volumes about the recognition acquired by the former owner of the English football club Chelsea.

Podoliak said Tuesday that Ukraine wants China, Russia, the United States, France, Turkey, Germany, Israel and Canada as guarantors of its security. The role of these countries, as well as the obligation under Article 5 of NATO, consisted of any threat to the protection of the country’s sovereignty in the revision of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

Podoliak said that some of the countries that wanted Ukraine as a guarantor had already received a “pre-accession” and that he thought there was a place for a meeting to be held by Turkey. According to the Turkish Foreign Minister, the goal is achievable with the ceasefire.

“Nothing is very promising yet,” was a negative response from Moscow on Wednesday. But Turkey is more optimistic and believes that there is a plan that can interest the parties.

Turkey’s next goal is for Zelensky and Putin to meet in the same room in the next 15 days. So far, it does not appear that Putin thinks he is losing or gaining much from this meeting. But if Turkey succeeds, it will be an unusual turnaround for Erdogan, whose autocratic drift threatens to turn him into an international parade.

Translated by Francisco de Zarate