Trembling before the elections: gloomy prospects for Ukraine in 2024

There are currently no signs of a turnaround in the stalled war in Ukraine, either militarily or diplomatically, analyzes historian Mark Kramer, director of the Davis Center at Harvard University in the US. He therefore faces the year 2024 pessimistically: “Militarily, there is currently a stalemate that is claiming many lives. In the fall of 2022, Ukraine was able to regain territory, but now it has problems repelling Russian attacks,” Kramer told krone.at. You experience “one of the darkest moments in a war that has been terrible from the start.”

Solution like after the Korean War?
While there is still determination in Ukraine to confront Russian aggression, the political mood outside appears to be slowly changing. The calls for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are becoming louder. The post-Korean War armistice, which was concluded in 1953 and continues to this day, is often seen as a model for a negotiated solution. At the time, however, there was a lot of pressure on North and South Korea from the Soviet Union and the US, as historian Vladislav Zubok, who teaches at the London School of Economics and Political Science, notes. That is the difference with today: “There are no external superpowers that can force both warring parties to the negotiating table.”

Harvard professor Kramer sees the Kremlin’s position as an obstacle to serious negotiations: “The Russian government has shown for twenty years that it does not respect international law and breaks all its agreements – whether with Moldova, Georgia or Ukraine Closed. So if you make an agreement and Russia says it is happy with the territory it has occupied, that would be a harbinger of a new war. Such arbitration would be a mirage,” the historian emphasizes. No Ukrainian decision-maker could accept a negotiation outcome that would see Ukraine lose 20 percent of its national territory – that is, the largely occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson.

“Crimea is a different issue, but no politician could live with it if the Donbass basin were lost. If there was a way to win it back, there would be strong pressure to start a new war for it,” Kramer explains.

At this point, however, further conquests on either side are hardly conceivable. The Russians have dug themselves particularly deeply into the Donbass, in eastern Ukraine. The military and human costs of recapturing this area would be enormous. “Now the war has reached a stage like it was on the Western Front during the First World War from the end of 1914. It is a trench war,” Russian-born historian Vladislav Zubok told krone.at.

“Little Verduns” in eastern Ukraine
You can no longer surprise the enemy, Zubok emphasizes: “Drones make everything transparent, making tanks increasingly useless. As soon as they are pulled together for a breakthrough, you see it and artillery or rockets destroy them immediately.” Currently, Russia’s strategy is to keep the war limited and exhaust Ukrainian forces with constant attacks. “Russia is trying to create small Verduns, like in Avdiivka, in Bakhmut and other cities,” the historian said. The Ukrainian forces would be crushed: although not in as many numbers as the Russians, Ukraine would suffer more overall from this warfare.

Because the situation on the battlefield is so hopeless, war fatigue is slowly spreading in the European Union and also in the US. As a result, Russia is “in an excellent position to win the war,” Zubok analyzes. Although slogans such as “Stop Putin” and “Protect the liberal world order” have been issued in the West, the Ukrainian defense campaign is not seen as existentially as in Russia, so that parliaments can be convinced to pass a war budget. “So much so that Ukraine has enough money to meet the demand at the front,” the historian said.

Elections determine support
There are currently no signs that financial and military support for the Kiev government will increase in 2024. On the contrary: elections are coming, the outcome of which could mean a dramatic end to aid. Right-wing conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who has repeatedly flirted with Putin, can already block payments to Ukraine. In the European Parliament elections, right-wing populist and Russia-friendly parties may gain strength and then create even more obstacles. The National Council elections in Austria will also determine the extent to which sanctions will be supported and aid continued.

The election of the American president in November is eagerly awaited. As things stand now, despite all the legal setbacks, Trump has a good chance of becoming the Republican candidate and even president again. In this case, Mark Kramer sees black. He refers to Trump’s absurd statements in the past: “He said the war never started and he can end it in one day. I have no idea what he means by that.” There are already conflicting factors in the US Congress regarding military aid to Ukraine. A Trump victory would be “a very bleak scenario,” Kramer said. In return, he is there certain that if Donald Trump is defeated, US support for Kiev will continue – despite all obstacles.

Putin could remain in power until 2036
Presidential elections will take place in Russia in March, where the outcome is much less uncertain. The chance that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected is 99.99 percent, Mark Kramer explains succinctly. “If his health cooperates, he will be in power until 2030 and then re-elected until 2036,” the historian said.

There should be no illusions in the West that regime change in Russia is a plausible way to end the war, he warns: “If Western countries count on the Russian government to give up because of domestic political or economic pressure, they are still alive . in a dream world.” Because no one in Russia is currently seriously challenging Putin’s regime, there are currently no major protests against the invasion of Ukraine, although they are not entirely impossible.

Also because war propaganda is much more effective today than in Soviet times, as Vladislav Zubok notes. When the historian studied in Russia in the 1980s, the invasion of Afghanistan was underway. At the time it was not reported at all, but now the government is much smarter. “It presents the ‘special operation’ as part of a major effort likened to the ‘Great Patriotic War’ against Nazi Germany,” Zubok said. “The propaganda worked much better than any of us expected.” Putin also experienced the war against Afghanistan and learned his lessons from it. “Not everything he does is crazy, some of it is remarkably effective,” the scientist explains.

Support for the war in Russia remains strong, despite enormous losses. While almost 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed in Afghanistan over a nine-year period, within 22 months, conservatively estimated, there were approximately 80,000 dead Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Russia now has half the population of the Soviet Union. “So we are talking about ten times higher losses per capita in Ukraine than in Afghanistan,” Mark Kramer emphasizes.

“Both sides would plan revenge”
The bodies are also piling up on the Ukrainian side; estimates put the number at 70,000 dead soldiers. Historian Vladislav Zubok therefore advocates examining negotiated solutions. “If Putin’s counterattack fails next year, every opportunity must be taken to convince both sides to agree to even an informal ceasefire. “You don’t have to sit at the negotiating table,” says Zubok. From 2014 to 2022, people in eastern Ukraine continued to shoot at each other, but gradually the war “faded away,” so to speak. An uncertain ceasefire naturally raises the question of how to prevent further conflict: “Both sides would plan their revenge.”