While Russia’s war of aggression continues, Ukraine remains heavily dependent on the supply of ammunition and weapons from abroad. According to an analysis by Britain’s RUSI Institute, persevering on defense could pay off in the near future; the Kremlin’s chances of success are likely to gradually decline from 2025 onwards.
Russia’s armed forces are expected to reach their peak in late 2024, with material challenges increasing in 2025, researchers Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds summarized in a recent blog post.
Battles of attrition as a tactical calculation
Russia is currently pursuing the plan to continue pressure on the front to deplete ammunition and personnel reserves in Ukraine. With this goal in mind, an attempt is being made to break the determination of international partners to continue sending military aid to Ukraine. If the capabilities of those under attack then dry up, the Russians can expect to make gains on the battlefield again.
However, the Russian armed forces are currently suffering heavy losses. “While no major offensive is currently underway, Russian units are tasked with carrying out smaller tactical attacks that will at least inflict steady losses on Ukraine and allow Russian forces to take and hold positions.”
Supplies keep the attack going
These setbacks can still be easily compensated for, as approximately 80 percent of the tanks and armored vehicles used are reconditioned and modernized vehicles. But supplies are slowly coming to an end; according to the analysis, most of the supplies will be used up by 2026; Russian industry cannot keep up with production of inventories.
North Korea is also not the deciding factor
The situation is similar to the production of ammunition: the Russian Ministry of Defense has calculated that approximately 5.6 million shells of 152 millimeter caliber and 122 millimeter caliber will be needed by 2024. However, Russia can apparently produce only 2.1 million shells of the required calibers. So all that’s left is the inventory, which is probably in poor condition.
Grenade supplies from North Korea could help the aggressor, but they will not be able to “compensate for the significant shortage of available 152-millimeter ammunition in 2025,” the report continues.
Russia plays poker for time
What does this mean for Ukraine? Russia continues to buy time, but if it has no prospect of success by 2025 “due to its inability to improve the quality of its forces for offensive operations, it will consequently have difficulty forcing Kiev to surrender by 2026.” write the authors in their conclusion.
The motto is therefore: persevere, made possible by further deliveries of weapons and ammunition from allies. This would likely force Russia not just to negotiate, but to actually negotiate an end to the war on terms favorable to Ukraine.
Source: Krone
I am Wallace Jones, an experienced journalist. I specialize in writing for the world section of Today Times Live. With over a decade of experience, I have developed an eye for detail when it comes to reporting on local and global stories. My passion lies in uncovering the truth through my investigative skills and creating thought-provoking content that resonates with readers worldwide.
