This year’s record winter – in terms of warm temperatures, mind you – provides a taste of what could become the norm in the future thanks to climate change: ‘cold seasons’ with less snow that stays on the ground longer. A German research team published an alarming study about this. On average, alpine ski resorts will have about 40 percent fewer snow days by the end of the century.
The scientists led by Veronika Mitterwallner from the University of Bayreuth (Germany) collected data on the seven most important regions in the world in which ski tourism plays an important role. They then converted climate scenarios with different levels of greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century to the respective regional conditions in the Alps, the Andes in South America, the North American Appalachians and the Rocky Mountains, as well as in Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Zealand. Alps (Southern Alps).
Graphic; Less snow for ski areas
Previous relevant studies have mostly only looked at the smaller-scale effects of global warming on ski resorts. That is why the focus here is on a global scale, the scientists say.
From 2071, no more natural snowfall in 13% of the ski areas
The region in the world with by far the largest concentration of ski areas is the European Alps, which represent almost 70 percent of ski areas according to the research by Mitterwallner and colleagues; 15 percent of the ski areas are in the Rocky Mountains and seven percent in Japan. From the new analyzes it can be deduced that worldwide one in eight ski resorts – that is, 13 percent – will no longer experience natural snowfall in the winter season in the period from 2071 to 2100, according to the published article. was published in the trade journal “Plos One”.
The situation is also tense in Europe
“Under each emission scenario evaluated, a substantial decrease in the number of days with natural snow cover is expected at all major ski areas,” says Mitterwallner. For Europe, the numbers also point downwards – but to a very different extent: the best scenario describes stable average temperatures around 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (“SSP1-2.6”) around the year 2100. average number of days with natural snow cover over the entire Alpine arc will decrease from 218 (in the period between 1981 and 2010) to 184 in the period between 2071 and 2100. With this very optimistic approach, the number of snow days would hardly decrease compared to the current situation ( period 2011 – 2040).
In the scenario with high emissions (“SSP3-7.0”) with a temperature increase of about 3.6 degrees at the end of the century, the decrease in snowfall increases sharply: from historical 218 to the current 187 days and further to on average only 137 days in the year 2100. On the other hand, if you assume “very high” greenhouse gas emissions with a catastrophic increase of about 4.4 degrees, you end up with only 129 days of snow in the Alpine ski areas.
Will the snow disappear completely from Australian ski resorts?
Under such high emissions assumptions, there would be almost no snow at all, especially in Australian ski resorts. In the SSP3-7.0 scenario, annual snow cover days are reduced by 78 percent in the Australian Alps, 51 percent in the New Zealand Alps, exactly half in the Japanese Alps, 43 percent in the Andes and 42 percent in the European Alps. The declines are smallest in the Appalachians (minus 37 percent) and the Rocky Mountains, at 23 percent compared to 1981 to 2010.
Another study from the University of Innsbruck and the University of Waterloo (Canada) recently looked at the economic impacts of global warming already happening in North America: in the journal ‘Current Issues in Tourism’ the team quantified the economic losses of the American ski industry due to this climate change in the past twenty years by more than five billion dollars (approximately 4.6 billion euros).
“Our results point to potentially negative developments both for the recreational and economic value of skiing and for mountain biodiversity, as endangered species in the high mountains could be threatened by the loss of space as ski areas expand,” says sports economist Mitterwallner about the new “Plos Een” work.
Economic pressure is increasing
This means that profitable ski areas will clearly be located higher and therefore closer to the main ridges of the mountain ranges. This further increases the economic pressure on still sparsely populated alpine refuges as infrastructure is expanded here. In areas with even less snow at lower elevations closer to metropolitan areas, lift operators would have to rely even more on artificial snow than they do now to ensure the most extensive operation possible.
Source: Krone
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