Wheat shortage – “Ukraine will disappear from the market for a long time”

“We can’t export last year’s crop, we can’t collect the current crop to export it, and we really don’t want to sow the next.” That’s bad for the rest of the world. “What if they come in July or August and they want to buy grain and they refuse it, or the price is $600 a ton?”

Will wheat and corn be pushed out?
According to the minister, the problem is exacerbated by the fact that Ukrainian farmers no longer grow so much wheat due to the Russian blockades. Winter wheat, sown from the end of summer, is popular in Ukraine. Solskji pointed out that farmers were already switching from maize to sunflowers in the spring. However, the harvest is smaller in weight per hectare. However, it can be sold for a higher price. A similar effect could now also occur in wheat, Solskji said. There is strong demand for sunflowers and oilseed rape in Europe, which is likely to displace everything else – including wheat and maize. He assumes that in the autumn the acreage for winter wheat will be a “considerable percentage” smaller.

Help planned for storage and removal
Before the war, Ukraine exported up to six million tons of grain per month. Due to the Russian blockade, the amount was reduced to 300,000 tons in March, since then it has recovered somewhat. Solskji expressed confidence that exports through the western border and smaller Danube ports could exceed two million tons by June. Despite this, Ukraine faces huge surpluses of up to 60 million tons of grain and oilseeds for which there are no storage facilities. European states are considering making grain silos available to Ukraine, Solskji said. The minister gave no details.

US President Joe Biden supports European countries’ efforts to build silos along the Ukrainian border to enable grain exports to contain the global food crisis. The Washington administration is developing a plan for grain removals by rail in consultation with European partners, Biden said at a union conference in Philadelphia. Ukrainian tracks have a different track gauge than in the EU. “That is why we are going to build temporary silos at the borders of Ukraine, including in Poland.” The grain can thus be loaded from Ukrainian rail cars into the new silos and then onto European freight cars to “carry it all over the world by sea.” Transport across the Black Sea is not possible due to Russian sea mines, Ukraine welcomes the move. “This is just one of the potentially useful ways to ensure food security,” said Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. But a safe corridor from Ukrainian ports is also required.