An expert from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation sees that the war ‘has already arrived in Lebanon’. Whether the situation will explode across the Middle East remains to be seen. Israel continues to take decisive action against its enemies. Iran warns, but hesitates to respond.
Is this the eve of the great war in the Middle East? “Hassan Nasrallah was our Osama bin Laden times ten. For more than 30 years, he killed our citizens while helping other terrorist organizations kill us better,” Nadav Pollak, a lecturer at Israel’s Reichman University, wrote about the Hezbollah chief’s death in an Israeli airstrike on the Lebanese capital Beirut .
Nasrallah’s death also hits Iran hard
A heavy blow to Israel’s enemies. Especially for Iran, which took the initiative to establish Hezbollah in 1982. “Everyone must be aware that the situation is extremely explosive and that anything is possible at any time. Also a war,” warned Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
Marcus Schneider, Middle East expert at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, makes a distinction. The war that is already here is the Lebanon War. “With the elimination of Nasrallah, we have taken the step towards definitive escalation. This can no longer be stopped even with diplomacy.”
Ground offensive probably
The expert suspects that Israel will soon launch a ground offensive similar to the one in the Gaza Strip. A necessity for safety policy. Tens of thousands of Israelis were forced to leave the north of the country for the border with Lebanon due to continued shelling by Hezbollah. According to Schneider, Israel will likely take control of southern Lebanon to create a safe buffer zone for the residents of northern Israel.
Why is a ground offensive necessary? Hezbollah cannot be defeated from the air alone. The area to the south is littered with tunnels and military infrastructure that can only be destroyed from the ground. But that could also be the calculation of Hezbollah and Iran: their fighters know the area like the back of their hands, and the Israeli army has been preparing for this war since 2006, but still enters foreign territory. And Iran could send militias into the country via neighboring Syria to strengthen it.
“Iran wants to keep the conflict hot, but does not want a fire to break out,” Schneider said. In the event of a major war, the future of the regime is also at stake. A few weeks ago it seemed that Iran held all the cards. Hamas kept Israel on its toes; the country was criticized for the Gaza war. Also from close allies such as the US.
And now? Within a few weeks, Israel managed not only to defeat Hamas militarily, but also to “take apart Hezbollah like a predator takes apart its prey,” as CNN put it.
Israel was clearly underestimated
“No one expected these blows,” says Schneider. Iran’s allies are demanding a response. Tehran hesitates. Meanwhile, Israel is targeting the next member of the ‘Axis of Resistance’, the Houthis. The air force has attacked rebel military targets in Yemen with dozens of fighter jets.
Israel’s determination was probably underestimated. And the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ is overestimated.
Source: Krone
I am Wallace Jones, an experienced journalist. I specialize in writing for the world section of Today Times Live. With over a decade of experience, I have developed an eye for detail when it comes to reporting on local and global stories. My passion lies in uncovering the truth through my investigative skills and creating thought-provoking content that resonates with readers worldwide.
