Despite the highest number of new corona infections since Wednesday in early April, the numbers remain below previous model calculations, according to which up to 70,000 daily cases were feared at the height of the summer wave. In general, no further major increase is expected: The seven-day incidence across Austria should increase slightly by next Wednesday, but then – also due to the start of the holiday in the rest of Austria – things should level off in the west, as is now the case in the eastern states.
The fact that the true values in Vienna and Lower Austria were below the 68 percent fluctuation range could indicate “that the holiday effect was stronger than expected in the latest forecast,” according to the Covid forecasting consortium. The summer holidays are leading to a change in the situation due to school closures, more holiday-related absences from work and fewer leisure contacts, explained the experts from Vienna University of Technology, MedUni Vienna and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (GÖG). According to the model computers, however, a lower willingness to test cannot be ruled out.
For the current forecast, it is now expected that the holiday effect will occur and that the number of infection reports will also level off in the western federal states. It literally says that no “significant increase in momentum” is currently expected, but there could be an increase in the number of people returning from a trip subsequently.
Lowest incidence for Carinthia, highest expected for Burgenland
For the time being, for next Wednesday, July 20, a seven-day incidence in Austria is expected in the range of 690 to 1,100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The lowest incidence is probably in Carinthia with 510 to 840 and the highest in Burgenland with 910 to 1500 cases. When it comes to hospital occupancy, Burgenland is also the worst in the forecast as measured by the ratio of occupancy to bed capacity.
Also in Burgenland hospitals with the highest risk
Across Austria, the critical use limit of 33 percent of intensive care units will be exceeded with a 0.5 percent chance, in Burgenland this could happen on July 27 with a 16 percent chance. There are no comparable high risks in the other states – however, the Forecast Consortium notes that the coverage forecast for new admissions assumes care in their own state. “Due to the lower density of intensive care beds in some states, supra-regional co-delivery can be assumed,” it says. In other words, intensive care patients can be admitted to hospitals in neighboring states.
More corona patients in hospitals again
The forecast for hospital coverage, which goes two weeks into the future, assumes an increase from 1067 Covid patients on Tuesday to an average of 1281 patients on July 27 in normal wards. 961 to 1709 people are given as a range of variation. In intensive care units, the number of people with Covid-19 could increase from 56 to an average of 71 seriously ill (range from 54 to 94).
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
